[The Viewpoint of Dongki Kim] Strategic National Security Challenges for the Lee Jaemyung Administration

Trump Detects Serious Rift Between North Korea and China
Focus on the Strategic Use of North Korea
Potential Opportunity to Form a "Korea Economic Zone"

The 21st President, Lee Jaemyung, has been inaugurated. The Korean people have democratically restored political leadership that was toppled by an unconstitutional and illegal martial law. This is a rare and proud achievement in world history, and a victory for the people. However, the new administration must first confront the enormous wave of change approaching the Korean Peninsula.

From the moment he was elected, President Trump of the United States actively expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue with Chairman Kim Jongun of North Korea. Some believe Trump is motivated by a desire to win a Nobel Prize. However, it is more reasonable to see this as an effort to advance U.S. interests, given his consistent prioritization of American national interests.

Since the Obama administration, the United States has sought to shift its strategic focus to Asia in order to contain the rise of China. Trump continued and accelerated this trend during his first term. In the 2017 "National Security Strategy," the U.S. designated China and Russia as strategic competitors, marking the beginning of a new Cold War. The Biden administration went further by identifying China as the sole competitor. The United States has set winning the competition with China as its strategic objective, and the second Trump administration is also operating under this principle. Therefore, the United States seeks friendly relations with other countries if it helps in its competition with China.

Trump is the first U.S. president to have met Kim Jongun in person, having held three U.S.-North Korea summits. Through these meetings, Trump gained insight into the unique relationship and history between North Korea and China. Contrary to popular belief, there are serious rifts between North Korea and China. North Korea is extremely wary of Chinese interference and tries to minimize its dependence on China. After the establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea and China in 1992, North Korea continuously attempted to improve relations with the United States, but failed because North Korea was of no use to the U.S. However, as U.S.-China competition intensified, Trump realized that North Korea could be useful in checking China. This perception has spread among the U.S. Congress, media, and experts. Trump is acting based on this thorough geopolitical calculation.

In the past, the United States consistently believed that the relationship between North Korea and China was one of "blood alliance" or "lips and teeth," and mistakenly thought it could control North Korea through China. However, since the Korean War, North Korea has harbored growing distrust toward the Chinese leadership, and has been strongly wary of China's interference and disregard. China, for its part, is also uncomfortable with North Korea, which, despite receiving economic aid, frequently provokes and insults China. North Korea is a country that cannot be controlled through China.

Now that Trump has recognized North Korea's strategic value, he will continue to pursue negotiations. There is also a possibility that he will take a more flexible approach to denuclearization talks. This is an unprecedented opportunity for North Korea as well. The first major turning point will be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in Gyeongju this fall. Before attending the summit in Gyeongju, Trump may make a surprise visit to Pyongyang. This would be the most significant event since the Korean War.

If U.S.-North Korea relations improve, and the United States partially lifts sanctions on North Korea, allowing its economic development to begin, many opportunities will open up for South Korean companies. If this leads to the creation of a "Korea Economic Zone," it would greatly energize the South Korean economy. This is a crucial turning point for Korea's future. The new administration must quickly understand the United States' strategic intentions for the Korean Peninsula. After that, it should pursue tension reduction through dialogue with North Korea, rather than hostile confrontation. The new order forming on the Korean Peninsula must not leave Korea behind. The new administration's proactive and strategic approach and efforts are essential.

Kim Donggi, author of "The Power of the Dollar" and attorney