Caixin Manufacturing PMI Falls to 48.3 in May, First Contraction in Eight Months for China

US High Tariffs Deal Direct Blow to China

The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May 2025, released by Chinese financial information provider Caixin, showed a contraction for the first time in eight months due to the aftermath of the US-China tariff war.

According to Caixin on June 3, the manufacturing PMI for May 2025 stood at 48.3, down 2.1 points from the previous month’s 50.4. This marks a return to economic contraction for the first time since September of last year. The latest PMI figure fell significantly short of the market expectation of 50.7 and hit its lowest level in 32 months since September 2022.

This is seen as a direct blow to China, a manufacturing powerhouse, from the high tariffs imposed by the United States.

Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics of China also reported a manufacturing PMI of 49.5 for May 2025 on May 31.

The PMI, compiled based on surveys of corporate purchasing managers, serves as an indicator of economic trends: a reading above 50 signals economic expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.