There are growing expectations that the domestic stock market may transition from an event-driven phase back to a fundamentals-driven phase. Since the recent upward trend was largely attributed to the United States' mutual tariff suspension measures, it is anticipated that, once this issue is resolved, the market will shift its focus to real economic indicators.
Kang Hyunki, a researcher at DB Securities, stated, "Since April 10, 2025, the Korean stock market has been on a rapid upward trajectory," and explained, "Strictly speaking, the sole reason for the rise in the Korean stock market was the 'expectation following the United States' mutual tariff suspension.'"
He emphasized, "Regardless of whether valuations were high or low, all countries' stock markets rose during this period," adding, "In short, it was a market strongly driven by events related to tariffs."
However, he forecasts that the current stock price increase may be a short-term rebound based on event-driven factors, and that the market is likely to eventually return to fundamentals.
He stressed, "In the United States, as the excessive stimulus measures implemented since 2020 are being withdrawn, leading indicators in the labor market are weakening," and added, "The growth rate of labor productivity is also on a downward trend, which reasonably reflects a decline in the strength of the U.S. economy."
He continued, "From the perspective of the Korean economy, if overseas demand?especially from the United States?decreases, there will be problems with exports," and said, "So far, Korea's export growth rate has been declining, and there is a possibility that this trend may not easily reverse."
He explained, "After stock prices have fully reflected the impact of events, the market has moved toward where fundamentals lead it," and added, "This is not to suggest that we should ignore the current event-driven market, but it does seem necessary to prepare for a transition to a fundamentals-driven phase at some point."
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