Rapidly Changing Global Landscape...Urgent Need to Solve Complex Equations [Key Issues for the New Administration]

Restoring South Korea-China Relations and Finding a Compromise on U.S. Pressure to Contain China
Clarifying the Truth of the December 3 Martial Law Incident and Punishing Those Responsible Are Also Key Issues

Editor's NoteA new government will take office in South Korea on June 4. Due to the early presidential election, the 21st presidential administration must immediately take charge of state affairs without a transition period for the transfer of power. Expectations for the new government are high, and so are the burdens. Over three installments, we will analyze the core issues that the new administration must address.

The new South Korean government, which will be inaugurated on June 4, will begin its term in the midst of a massive reorganization of the international order. According to diplomatic experts, the existing liberal trade order is undergoing a structural transformation, meaning that the next five years will require more meticulous and sophisticated diplomatic strategies than ever before. In addition, the new administration faces the difficult task of restoring and balancing the so-called "four-power diplomacy" involving the United States, China, Japan, and Russia, as well as addressing the increasingly complex North Korean nuclear issue.

Andeok Geun, Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, is meeting with Bruce Westerman, Chairman of the U.S. House Natural Resources Committee, and members of the committee at Lotte Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul, on May 30. Photo by Yonhap News

U.S. 'Tariff Bomb' Uncertainty Continues

The "U.S.-Korea reciprocal tariff negotiations," which were initially cited as the top priority for the next administration, are expected to remain highly uncertain until the U.S. judiciary reaches a final decision. On May 28 (local time), the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that former President Donald Trump's high-tariff policy exceeded the legal authority of the president and invalidated it. However, the appeals court accepted the White House's request to "suspend the ruling."

However, Sohn Yul, President of the East Asia Institute (EAI), pointed out that "the U.S.-Korea tariff negotiations are a micro-level issue," and emphasized, "What is more important is to properly understand the essence of the chaos in the global economic order and to accurately read the direction of the new order's changes." He added, "The most-favored-nation (MFN) principle, which underpins the existing liberal trade order, and even the World Trade Organization (WTO), have been declared dead." Regarding the next government's trade diplomacy strategy, he advised, "It is essential to strengthen diplomatic solidarity with like-minded countries, and the central platform for this should be the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)." He further suggested, "The new administration should actively devise plans to join and utilize the CPTPP." The CPTPP is an economic alliance led by Japan.

Due to rapid changes in customs and trade environments, exporting companies are facing increased uncertainty and financial burdens. The photo shows containers piled up at Sinsundae Pier and Gammam Pier in Busan Port on April 30. Photo by Yonhap News

The next administration's strategy toward China is considered the most challenging issue. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration received an assessment of having the "worst-ever" South Korea-China relations, so the new government must work to restore ties while also enduring U.S. pressure to join its efforts to contain China. This issue extends beyond economic security areas such as advanced technology and semiconductors, and is also linked to matters such as the relocation of U.S. Forces Korea and the increase of South Korea's share of defense costs.

The North Korean nuclear issue is also formidable. Unlike during the Moon Jae In administration, Russia has now emerged as a key partner for North Korea, making high-level solutions necessary. International cooperation, centered on South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral coordination, will be required. In addition, the new government must prepare for the possibility of so-called "Korea passing" in the event that U.S.-North Korea dialogue resumes.

Military Reform and Strategic Flexibility: Growing Challenges for the Next Administration

The security situation facing the new government can be summed up as "internal unrest and external threats." Domestically, the aftershocks of the 12·3 Martial Law incident continue, while externally, North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are becoming more advanced, and the possibility of adjusting the role of U.S. Forces Korea is emerging. As a result, the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula is undergoing fundamental changes.

Accordingly, the new administration's top priority is expected to be "military reform." First, a full-scale investigation into the 12·3 Martial Law incident and the punishment of those responsible is likely to begin after the presidential election. A military official stated, "Major commanders are currently on trial, but the full truth has yet to be revealed," adding, "There is anxiety among service members, as they do not know when they might become the target of an investigation. Therefore, a swift investigation and punishment of those responsible are necessary to stabilize morale within the military."

In particular, calls for reforming military intelligence agencies, such as the Defense Counterintelligence Command and Defense Intelligence Command, which played leading roles during the 12·3 incident, are expected to resurface. During the Moon Jae In administration, the Defense Security Command was disbanded and the Defense Security Support Command (now the Defense Counterintelligence Command) was established in response to the Defense Security Command's martial law document scandal.

Vehicles are waiting at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, on May 23. Photo by Yonhap News

The civilianization of the defense sector is also a major task. The formation of a cartel centered on the military and the Korea Military Academy has been cited as another background factor for the 12·3 incident. The Democratic Party of Korea pledged to appoint a civilian as Minister of National Defense, and the People Power Party also announced plans to strengthen the principle of civilian control, such as imposing a restriction period on appointing former military officers as defense ministers.

Externally, the "adjustment of the role of U.S. Forces Korea," which is expected to be accelerated during Donald Trump's second term as U.S. president, is also cited as a major challenge for the new government. The United States is emphasizing the "strategic flexibility" of its forces, which could shift the role of U.S. Forces Korea?from maintaining a posture to counter North Korea, which has been in place for over 70 years since the Korean War?to containing China. Military tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising, as North Korea is strengthening not only its nuclear and missile capabilities, but also its conventional forces.

Recently, both South Korea and the United States denied foreign media reports that about 4,500 of the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea would be relocated to Guam and other Indo-Pacific regions, but concerns persist. Xavier Brunson, Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, stated at an online seminar on May 28, "Strategic flexibility is what everyone wants," and added, "To guarantee peace through strength, sometimes we need to move elsewhere." Some observers have even suggested that the issue of adjusting the role of U.S. Forces Korea could be negotiated as part of a package deal, along with tariffs and defense cost-sharing.

Um Hyosik, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, stated, "A change in the strategic role of U.S. Forces Korea is an inevitable future," and emphasized, "For the new administration, the urgent task is to devise measures to address the security gap that will arise when the role of U.S. Forces Korea changes?whether to fill it independently or to strengthen military cooperation with the United States and Japan."