Yoon Heeung: "Limited Volatility in Public Opinion Expected for the Remainder of the Campaign" [So Jongseop's Sogteoview]

"Whether Lee Jaemyung Surpasses 50% Vote Share Is the Key Point"
"Kim Moonsoo's Ability to Expand to the Center Is Crucial"
"For Lee Junseok, Mobilizing Supporters to the Polls Is Essential"

According to the Public Official Election Act, opinion polls conducted from May 28 to June 3 cannot be published. This period is commonly referred to as the "silent period," a time when it is natural to be curious about the direction of public opinion. On the afternoon of May 27, Yoon Heeung, CEO of Opinions, appeared on Asia Economy's YouTube channel 'AK Radio' and predicted, "Although there is a possibility that public opinion may shift, the range of change will be quite limited." In response to an additional question on May 28 regarding the impact of the TV debate on the night of the 27th, he analyzed, "The proportion of swing voters has already dropped sharply, and since a significant number of voters will immediately participate in early voting, volatility is inevitably limited."

How would you summarize the trends in public opinion up to the 27th?

The structure of one strong, one moderate, and one weak candidate has been maintained since the beginning, and it still holds true now. The approval rating for Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party candidate, which had exceeded 50%, slowed last week, and now many surveys show him in the mid-to-high 40% range. Kim Moonsoo's approval rating, which was in the low 30% range, has now reached the mid-to-high 30% and even the 40% range. Lee Junseok's approval rating has also entered double digits. These three points summarize the changes in approval ratings for each candidate.

What is the key point to watch regarding approval ratings in the remaining six days?

The key is whether Kim Moonsoo can achieve a personal approval rating that surpasses the People Power Party's party approval rating. Although he has recovered significantly, he has not fully regained the traditional party approval rating level of the People Power Party. Even though this presidential election is being held due to the impeachment of a president from the People Power Party, it is an unusual phenomenon considering the political landscape of progressives and conservatives.

CEO Yoon Heeung diagnosed, "Candidate Kim Moonsoo is still trapped in conservatism."

Kim Moonsoo has not yet fully absorbed the People Power Party's support base.

He is still trapped in conservatism. That is why he has no choice but to visit former President Park Geunhye and engage in similar activities. This is not a rational campaign strategy. The election is about to end, so during the final stage, he should be running a so-called centrist expansion campaign. However, the fact that he visited former President Park, a symbol of conservatism, indicates an internal judgment that he has not yet sufficiently consolidated his support base in Yeongnam or among conservatives. In contrast, Lee Jaemyung has fully consolidated his progressive support base. The key point is whether Kim can shift toward centrist expansion in the remaining period.

Recently, Lee Jaemyung's approval rating has shown a slight decline or stagnation.

The impeachment of the Chief Justice or controversies over Supreme Court appointments may have had an impact. The most effective narrative is the need to check the monopoly of power. Even those who do not think Kim Moonsoo is performing well may still agree on the need for checks and balances. This is an adjustment. It is unusual for a candidate to surpass a 50% approval rating in pre-election polls. It is also difficult to achieve in a head-to-head race.

Will Lee Jaemyung's approval rating continue to hold during the remaining campaign period?

Currently, the structure is roughly 5 to 4 to 1. In actual vote counts, almost all candidates tend to exceed their approval ratings from opinion polls. This is because the vote share is recalculated after excluding "don't know" and "no response" answers. However, not all candidates' numbers increase equally. It depends on the willingness of each support base to vote. Therefore, when asked, "Will you definitely vote in this election?" the proportion of highly motivated voters can be identified by support base. Generally, Lee Jaemyung's supporters show a strong willingness to vote. Therefore, even though his approval rating is in the mid-to-high 40% range, it is possible to expect that he could surpass 50% in the actual vote share. Whether Lee Jaemyung can exceed a 50% vote share is one of the key points to watch in this presidential election.

Representative Yoon said, "The key point to watch is whether candidate Lee Jae Myung surpasses a 50% vote share."

In the end, mobilizing supporters to the polls seems to be the core strategy for the remaining period.

The campaign will likely focus on this in the remaining days. This is not a stage for complacency. The main goal must be to maintain tension to prevent supporters from becoming complacent. There is still enough possibility for change in the remaining period. However, the range of change is inevitably quite limited. If three screws were loose until last week, they are now being tightened. It is not easy for one to turn freely on its own.

Since everything is interconnected within 100%, if I go up, it means someone else goes down. As the number of swing voters decreases and all teams go all out, it is difficult to increase approval ratings simply by doing well alone. Therefore, a 1-2% change in the future will require more energy than a 3-5% change in the past. For volatility to occur, it would take both an outstanding performance and a major setback for the opponent. In reality, there have not been many cases of significant change during this period in presidential elections. It is still worth watching closely.

Lee Junseok's approval rating has entered double digits.

This is remarkable. There is always room for a third candidate. With sufficient campaign capability, it is possible to achieve a meaningful approval rating. Lee has demonstrated his campaign abilities. He needs to pay more attention to whether he can maintain a double-digit share in the final vote count. This is because his main support base consists of voters in their 20s and 30s, as well as centrist voters in their 40s. The characteristic of these voters, who dislike both the Democratic Party and the People Power Party, is that their motivation to vote does not burn strongly. Their willingness to vote is weak. The proportion of Lee's supporters who say they will definitely vote is relatively lower than that of the other two candidates. This is a risk. For Lee, not only is it important to raise his approval rating, but it is equally important to mobilize his supporters to the polls.

Lee Junseok has emphasized the strategic choice for conservatives. Will this strategy affect his approval rating?

Generally, this can be disadvantageous. During discussions of unification, candidates with lower approval ratings may drop out. It is necessary to strongly convey to voters the legitimacy and meaning of voting for him. Even if it does not affect the outcome, it is important to encourage people to vote by making them feel that casting a ballot is an act for the future.
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