[PollPoll News] Lee Jaemyung-Kim Moonsoo Gap Narrows Sharply... From 22%p to 9%p

Gallup Poll
Lee Jaemyung Down 6%p, Kim Moonsoo Up 7%p
Among Moderates, Lee Jaemyung Still Leads 49% vs Kim Moonsoo 25%

With the June 3 presidential election approaching, support for Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, has declined, while support for Kim Moonsoo, the People Power Party's candidate, and Lee Junseok, the Reform New Party's candidate, has increased.

According to a Gallup poll released on the 23rd (conducted nationwide from May 20 to 22 among 1,002 people aged 18 and older via wireless telephone interviews, with a response rate of 17.8% and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), support for Lee Jaemyung was found to be 45%, down 6 percentage points from the previous week. Support for Kim Moonsoo rose by 7 percentage points to 36%, and support for Lee Junseok increased by 2 percentage points to 10%.

Looking at the data by generation and region, Lee Jaemyung's support rate slightly declined, while Kim Moonsoo's support rate showed an upward trend. Kim Moonsoo's support increased by 12 percentage points each in Daejeon/Sejong/Chungcheong and Daegu/Gyeongbuk. In contrast, Lee Jaemyung's support fell by 8 percentage points and 12 percentage points in these two regions, respectively. Even in his traditional stronghold of Gwangju·Jeolla, Lee Jaemyung's support dropped by 6 percentage points.

By generation, Lee Jaemyung's support fell by 5 percentage points among those in their 20s, 11 percentage points among those in their 40s, 6 percentage points among those in their 50s, 7 percentage points among those in their 60s, and 5 percentage points among those in their 70s, compared to the previous week. Except for those in their 30s, where there was no change, support for Lee Jaemyung declined across all generations. In contrast, Kim Moonsoo's support increased by 4 percentage points among those in their 20s, 6 percentage points among those in their 30s, 10 percentage points among those in their 40s, 3 percentage points among those in their 50s, 10 percentage points among those in their 60s, and 11 percentage points among those in their 70s.

Additionally, it is notable that support for Kim Moonsoo among women rose by 10 percentage points to reach 39%. Lee Jaemyung's support among women fell by 6 percentage points to 45%. However, among moderates, who are known to hold the casting vote in the election, support for Lee Jaemyung was 49%, for Kim Moonsoo 25%, and for Lee Junseok 14%.

In terms of party support, the Democratic Party's support rate dropped by 6 percentage points to 42%, while the People Power Party's support rate rose by 6 percentage points to 36%. Support for the Reform New Party also increased by 2 percentage points to 6%.

A Gallup official analyzed, "The People Power Party's candidate selection process was later than that of the Democratic Party, and there was internal turmoil over unification after the primary. However, last weekend (May 17-18), the departure of former President Yoon Sukyeol from the party and the first televised debate among presidential candidates appear to have served as a turning point." The official also predicted the possibility of significant changes in public opinion polls. "Immediately after each party's primaries and candidate confirmations, as the official campaign period begins, volatility near the end could be greater than usual," the official said. "In the 19th presidential election held after President Park was impeached in 2017, support for Ahn Cheolsoo of the People's Party at one point approached that of then-front-runner Moon Jaein of the Democratic Party, but then plummeted, while Hong Junpyo of the Liberty Korea Party steadily gained and ultimately surpassed Ahn Cheolsoo in the final vote count as the campaign intensified."

For more detailed information on the poll, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.