"China to Reshape Economic Structure with Launch of 15th Five-Year Plan"

"China to Shift from Export-Led Growth
to Consumption and Innovation Model"

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on the 22nd that China is expected to include solutions for improving the structure of its economy in its medium- to long-term economic growth roadmap, the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026?2030).

Xi Jinping, President of China. Photo by TASS

According to SCMP, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is drafting the outline for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will be implemented from next year. President Xi Jinping recently instructed that the Five-Year Plan is a unique advantage of Chinese socialism and called for building broad consensus. Accordingly, relevant authorities plan to soon gather opinions from officials, the public, experts, and scholars through various channels.

The 15th Plan, which will be made public in March next year, is expected to emphasize the development of high-tech industries, the resilience of the manufacturing sector, and domestic consumption. The plan is also expected to outline strategies to support President Xi's goal of raising per capita GDP to the level of a middle-income country by 2035 in order to achieve socialist modernization.

There is also attention on whether the plan will include a target for economic growth over the next five years. During the 12th Plan (2011?2015) and the 13th Plan (2016?2020), China set average annual economic growth targets of 7% and 6.5%, respectively. However, in the 14th Plan (2021?2025), no target was set, with the government citing the need to respond efficiently to various risks.

Yang Weimin, former Deputy Director of the General Office of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, who participated in drafting the 14th Plan, stated, "China still has the ability to achieve economic growth at a level similar to the approximately 5% growth rate seen over the past five years from 2026 to 2030." In addition, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, forecast that China's potential average annual economic growth rate during the next Five-Year Plan period would be 4.88%.

There are also calls for measures to address weaknesses exposed by the trade war with the United States, such as transitioning from an export-oriented economy to one driven by domestic demand. Yang emphasized, "To realize the potential growth rate, the economy must be driven mainly by domestic demand," and analyzed that "it will be difficult to maintain rapid growth through exports."

Wang Yiming, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and advisor to the People's Bank of China, also predicted at a recent forum that "(due to external pressures) China will shift from an investment- and export-led growth model to one led by consumption and innovation."