[Global Focus] Middle East Diplomatic Shift... Trump Puts Pragmatism at the Forefront

Trump Chooses Middle East for First Overseas Trip
Shifts from Hardline Interventionism to America-First Policy
Peace Takes a Back Seat... Israel Left Off the Itinerary

Donald Trump's first overseas trip as President of the United States, a tour of the Middle East, was aimed at coordinating economic cooperation and diplomatic strategies with the Gulf region's key allies: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Trump officially announced a major shift in US Middle East policy, signaling a move away from a hardline interventionist approach toward a pragmatic, US interests-first policy. However, foreign media outlets have interpreted this trip as evidence of confusion and concern surrounding the Trump administration's Middle East strategy.

Lavish Investment Promises and Flattery... Focus on US Interests

Trump's Middle East tour spanned four days from the 13th (local time), covering three countries?Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)?with economic cooperation as its official theme. Unlike his first term, President Trump visited all three Gulf countries rather than Saudi Arabia alone, reflecting his desire to avoid repeating past mistakes. In 2017, after visiting only Saudi Arabia, President Trump posted on Twitter in support of Qatar's isolation, which led to divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Saudi Arabia went to great lengths to welcome Trump. F-15 fighter jets escorted his plane, and traditional Arabian cavalry accompanied his motorcade. A luncheon was held under a chandelier the size of a car in the palace. Even outside the press room, a McDonald's food truck was stationed, thoroughly catering to Trump's preferences.

In response, Trump offered high praise to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and King Salman in his speech. He particularly stated, "A golden era for the Middle East has arrived," expressing his intention to strengthen ties with the Arab world.

Subsequently, the White House announced deals with Saudi Arabia totaling $600 billion, including $142 billion in arms contracts and investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and energy sectors. However, the actual contracts made public amounted to about $300 billion?only half the announced total. Moreover, considering Saudi Arabia's defense budget of $78 billion, there are doubts about the feasibility of such investments.

The Financial Times (FT) in the UK analyzed that most of these promises are likely to remain symbolic gestures. Saudi Arabia, facing fiscal pressure from falling oil prices and domestic economic plans, lacks the capacity for large-scale overseas investments.

In Abu Dhabi, President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the UAE welcomed President Trump and reaffirmed the UAE's previously announced $1.4 trillion investment plan in the United States. Qatar and the UAE each signed agreements with the US worth $243 billion and $200 billion, respectively. Notably, Trump boasted that Qatar's purchase of 210 aircraft from Boeing was "the largest order in the history of American aviation." The White House stated that the long-term economic cooperation with Qatar would reach $1.2 trillion, but again, no specific details or timelines were provided.

FT described that "the host countries?Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE?responded enthusiastically to President Trump's 'deal politics' with their enormous financial resources."

Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) commented, "The Gulf states and Trump are both adept at exaggeration and grandstanding. Still, both sides got what they wanted: favorable gestures and mutual legitimacy. Even if only half the promises are fulfilled, both sides will claim major achievements."

Throughout the Middle East trip, the messages and attitudes Trump conveyed were clearly distinct from the past. The Economist in the UK noted that Trump's speech in the Middle East differed sharply from former President Barack Obama's focus on "democracy and human rights." Trump criticized "US interventionists" for destroying the region and emphasized that "the dazzling development of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is the achievement of the people of this region, not of outside nation-builders."

Announcement of Sanctions Relief for Syria: A Diplomatic Turning Point... First US-Syria Summit in 25 Years

The most dramatic shift was the announcement of sanctions relief for Syria. This decision, made despite opposition from US hardliners, was reportedly at the request of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia.

On the 14th, President Trump held a summit in Riyadh with President Ahmad Alshara of Syria. President Alshara is a former Islamic extremist for whom the US government once offered a $10 million bounty, and this was the first meeting between a US and Syrian leader in 25 years.

The normalization of diplomatic relations with Syria is also interpreted as an indirect message to Iran. Trump described President Alshara as "a young and attractive figure," signaling openness to future normalization with Iran. The Guardian in the UK criticized the US policy shift after a decade of isolating Syria, calling it "an act of granting impunity to those responsible for the Syrian civil war," and reported that human rights groups also view the US's "pragmatic diplomacy" as a surrender of moral standards.

In focusing on economic diplomacy, peace-related issues were sidelined. At a royal banquet, Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim stressed to Trump that "ending the Gaza war is the key to regional stability," but Trump remained focused solely on investment.

Another key agenda item of the trip was the Iran nuclear negotiations. In Doha, Qatar, Trump announced that "a sort of deal" had been reached, expressing optimism. The deal reportedly involves Iran suspending uranium enrichment for the next three years and allowing only limited enrichment thereafter, in exchange for US sanctions relief and the unfreezing of assets. However, The Guardian reported that the talks are expected to face a rocky path to a final agreement due to differences between the two sides. Iran insists on low-level enrichment for civilian use and international inspections, while hardliners in the Trump administration demand a complete halt to enrichment, leaving the negotiations unstable.

Trump's US-Centric Diplomacy Marginalizes Israel

Another major point of interest in this Middle East trip is that Israel has been reduced to a "bystander." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had previously boasted of his close relationship with President Trump. However, Israel was not included in the itinerary of this Middle East trip.

Earlier in May, President Trump declared a ceasefire with Yemen's Houthi rebels, diverging from Prime Minister Netanyahu's diplomatic stance. An even greater blow was Trump's direct engagement in nuclear negotiations with Iran. In 2018, Prime Minister Netanyahu persuaded President Trump to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, claiming that Iran was using its civilian program as a cover for weapons-grade enrichment. Now, Netanyahu finds himself sidelined from Trump's negotiations with Iran, the ceasefire with the Houthi rebels, and the easing of sanctions on Syria, weakening his position.

Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the US, summarized the situation by saying, "At this point, it seems Netanyahu has not only lost Trump's ear but also his heart and mind." Oren added, "This trip is about US interests. Israel cannot invest $1 trillion in America, but Saudi Arabia and Qatar can." This clearly illustrates President Trump's "America First" diplomacy.

Although Trump's Middle East trip outwardly emphasized "achievements" in investment and diplomatic normalization, critics argue that it was, in reality, a risky political experiment that tied sensitive issues such as nuclear weapons, refugees, and military conflict to America's short-term interests.

Foreign Affairs (FA) defined President Trump's diplomatic approach as "a dangerous combination of transactionalism and isolationism," diagnosing that "Trump seems to want a regional order based on force and deal-making rather than legitimacy or cooperation." FA advised that genuine change for a new Middle East order should include ceasefires, humanitarian aid, and a roadmap for the creation of a Palestinian state.