'Calexit' Controversy Rekindled by Trump... Will California Be Reabsorbed Into Canada? [AK Radio]

California Secession Movement Reignites
Calls for Independence Emerge in Regions Bordering Canada

The movement for secession and independence from the United States is gaining momentum in California, the largest economic hub on the U.S. West Coast. This movement, commonly referred to as "Calexit," is seen as a direct response to the second term of President Donald Trump and the economic damage caused by his tariff war.

The process for a referendum on secession has already begun within California. A signature campaign is currently underway in the state, and if 540,000 petition signatures are collected by the end of July, a secession commission will be established in the state legislature. It is reported that a vote on independence is planned for 2028.

This movement in California has also become a topic of discussion in Canada. Elizabeth May, leader of the Canadian Green Party, recently suggested at a press conference that "California should become Canada's 11th province, and other states wishing to secede from the U.S. should join together to form a new country called 'Cascadia.'"

In addition to California, there are also voices within the political circles of northeastern states bordering Canada?such as Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine?calling for independence and incorporation into Canada. The common thread behind these movements is a widespread anti-Trump sentiment in these regions.

Governor Gavin Newsom of California announcing the fiscal year 2025 budget proposal on the 14th (local time). He pointed out that the California economy is facing difficulties due to the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo by AP

In fact, California's secession movement also surfaced during President Trump's first term in 2017. As a stronghold of the Democratic Party, California saw significant calls for independence rather than remaining under Trump's rule. However, the movement faded when President Biden took office, only to be reignited with Trump's return to power.

Nevertheless, the prospect of California's independence is not considered realistic. After the Civil War in 1861, the United States amended the Constitution in 1869 with the 15th Amendment to prevent civil war by prohibiting states from unilaterally leaving the Union. Therefore, even if a referendum passes, it will be difficult for California to secede from the United States at will.

However, if California were to seek incorporation into Canada or another major power rather than simple independence, the situation could change. In such a case, diplomatic issues could arise, and in the worst-case scenario, there are concerns that it could even lead to civil war within the United States.

If California were to actually separate from the United States, a significant blow to the U.S. economy is expected. As of last year, California's GDP reached $4.1 trillion (about 5,777 trillion won), surpassing Japan's $4.01 trillion, making it the world's fourth-largest economy if considered as a country. Due to this economic strength, there are also voices within California arguing for the establishment of a fully independent nation, questioning, "Why should we join Canada, which is less prosperous than us?"

EPA Yonhap News

The decisive factor that has rapidly intensified the current atmosphere for secession is analyzed to be President Trump's tariff war. California's economy is heavily dependent on trade with Asian regions such as South Korea, China, Japan, and Taiwan. When President Trump imposed tariffs of up to 145% on China, China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, resulting in a 35% decrease in cargo volume at California's ports. This led to mass layoffs among port workers and dealt a blow to the entire export-import industry connected to the ports.

As a result, the California state government filed a lawsuit in court, claiming that Trump's tariff war was unconstitutional. This escalated into anti-Trump protests and led to the consolidation of the Democratic base, and it appears that the Trump administration began to feel the pressure. Some analysts suggest that this political pressure contributed to the recent rapid negotiations with China.

Meanwhile, similar secession movements tend to arise in the United States whenever there is a change in administration. During the Biden administration, the Republican stronghold of Texas saw a secession movement called "Texit." Such independence movements are often used by regions and political parties to consolidate their support base and apply political pressure on the current government.

Experts predict that the current Calexit movement will either strengthen or weaken depending on the policies of the Trump administration. In particular, as suspicions grow that President Trump personally benefited from the tariff war, criticism is emerging even within the Republican Party. Experts believe that this political situation could weaken President Trump's position in future trade negotiations.