April PPI Down 0.5% from Previous Month
Retail Sales Up 0.1%... Growth Rate Slows
Dimon: "Cannot Rule Out Possibility of Recession"
The three major indices on the New York Stock Exchange were on the rise on the 15th (local time). The market digested inflation and consumer data released that day, following the US-China trade agreement reached over the weekend. Wholesale prices fell unexpectedly and retail sales growth slowed sharply.
As of 1:26 p.m. on the same day in the New York stock market, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was up 186.38 points (0.44%) from the previous trading day, standing at 42,237.44. The large-cap S&P 500 index rose 28.6 points (0.49%) to 5,921.18, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index was up 48.1 points (0.25%) at 19,194.91.
Growth in retail sales slowed last month. According to the US Department of Commerce, retail sales in April 2025 totaled $724.1 billion, up just 0.1% from the previous month. This slightly exceeded market expectations, which had forecast a flat reading. However, the retail sales growth rate plunged from 1.7% in March to 0.1% in April, confirming that consumer sentiment is weakening rapidly.
Wholesale prices fell unexpectedly. According to the US Department of Labor, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 2025 dropped 0.5% from the previous month. The market had expected a 0.2% increase, but instead, this was the largest drop in five years. It was also well below the March figure (0%). This was attributed to falling service prices, and it is analyzed that despite margin pressure from tariff policies, companies are absorbing some of the cost burden.
Jamie Cox, Financial Advisor at Harris Financial Group, said, "If you were expecting stagflation (rising prices amid economic stagnation), these indicators do not support that argument," adding, "Growth is slowing, but disinflation (a decrease in the inflation rate) is also underway."
In the market, concerns are growing over rising prices due to aggressive tariff policies and an economic slowdown. However, as consumer sentiment cools rapidly, there are also projections that companies may find it difficult to pass on tariff costs to prices.
Jamie Dimon, the chairman of JPMorgan, known as the "Emperor of Wall Street," warned in an interview with Bloomberg TV regarding a possible recession, "We would like to avoid such a situation, but at this point, we cannot rule out the possibility," adding, "If a recession comes, we do not know how severe or how long it will last."
By stock, Nvidia was up 0.64%. Microsoft (MS) was strong, rising 0.86%. Tesla was down 0.75%, and Amazon was down 2.23%.
US Treasury yields were weak. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury, the global bond benchmark, was up 8 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage point) from the previous trading day at 4.44%, while the yield on the 2-year US Treasury, which is sensitive to monetary policy, was down 8 basis points from the previous day at 3.96%.
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