Analysis of Trump's Social Media Statements
If Policy Stance Continues, Oil Price Projected at $56 per Barrel by End of 2025
Bloomberg News reported on May 14 (local time), citing a Goldman Sachs analysis, that U.S. President Donald Trump prefers international oil prices to be in the range of $40 to $50 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs stated that this finding is based on an analysis of more than 1,000 posts made by President Trump on Twitter and his own social networking service, Truth Social.
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs explained, "Former President Trump has repeatedly issued messages calling for or welcoming price declines whenever oil prices exceeded $50 per barrel, while conversely, when prices fell below $30, he expressed support for higher prices to protect U.S. energy producers."
During his presidential campaign, President Trump is also emphasizing reduced energy costs and energy independence as key pledges. His plan aims to achieve both consumer price stability and the growth of the U.S. energy industry through policies such as deregulation, expanded drilling, and the promotion of energy exports.
Goldman Sachs projected that if this policy stance by Trump continues, the average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil could fall to $56 per barrel by the end of 2025 and to $52 in 2026.
The current WTI price is around $63 per barrel, which is somewhat above the range preferred by Trump. However, Bloomberg News analyzed that ongoing downward pressure on oil prices is likely, due to a combination of factors including supply adjustments by OPEC+ (OPEC plus Russia), concerns over a global economic slowdown, and potential changes in U.S. policy.
President Trump has previously intervened actively in oil price control, such as by pressuring Middle Eastern oil producers to increase output or encouraging shale oil production in the United States.
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