US: "China's Space Nuclear Missile Capabilities Growing Rapidly... Will Surpass Russia"

U.S. Intelligence Warns of Rapid Expansion
of China's Orbital Nuclear Missile Arsenal
DIA Projects China Could Possess Up to 60
FOBS Warheads by 2035, Outpacing Russia

U.S. intelligence agencies have analyzed that China could possess dozens of nuclear warhead-equipped "orbital missiles" within the next ten years.

AP Yonhap News

According to Bloomberg News on May 13 (local time), the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a report that analyzes the missile capabilities of major adversaries such as China, Iran, and Russia.

In the report, the DIA stated that the potential growth of space-based nuclear missiles utilizing a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) will be more pronounced in China than in Russia, projecting that by 2035, Russia could have up to 12 of these weapons, while China could increase its arsenal to as many as 60.

Unlike traditional weapon systems such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which travel within the atmosphere, FOBS involves sending a missile into low Earth orbit and then decelerating it with a retro-rocket to re-enter the atmosphere and strike its target. Compared to ICBMs, FOBS makes ballistic prediction more difficult, shortens the flight distance to the target, and, because it can travel over the Antarctic region, makes it harder to intercept with existing air defense systems.

Previously, the United States expressed strong concern in 2021 when China succeeded in a test flight of a FOBS. Mark Milley, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it was "very concerning," adding, "Whether it’s a 'Sputnik moment' is still unclear, but I think it’s very close." This was a reference to the shock when the Soviet Union, during the Cold War rocket development race, succeeded in launching the world’s first artificial satellite, Sputnik, ahead of the United States.

Additionally, the DIA projected that China could increase its number of nuclear warhead ICBMs from the current 400 to 700 by 2035. During the same period, China's stockpile of hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) is also expected to rise from the current 600 to 4,000. The DIA analyzed that "China may have already deployed conventional weapon systems capable of reaching Alaska."

The DIA report was released ahead of a White House announcement regarding the "Golden Dome," the U.S. version of a missile defense shield promoted by President Donald Trump. While details such as the construction timeline and budget for the Golden Dome have not yet been disclosed, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently estimated that one of the key issues?the space-based interceptor?could require up to $542 billion over 20 years.