Istanbul Talks on May 15
Russia Expected to Present Conditions Regarding Occupied Territories
There are expectations that when Russia returns to the negotiating table with Ukraine in Istanbul, T?rkiye, on May 15 (local time), it will present even tougher conditions than three years ago.
According to TASS on May 13 (local time), Vladimir Dzhabarov, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, said on Russian state television the previous day, "Our conditions will probably be even tougher than in March or April 2022."
Dzhabarov explained, "Since then, Russia has acquired new territories and enshrined this in the constitution, so the situation has changed dramatically," adding, "Therefore, I think there will be additional conditions."
This means that Russia believes the reality of its occupation of the so-called 'Donbas' and 'Novorossiya' regions?including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson?after the 'special military operation' in Ukraine, should be reflected in the peace terms.
He predicted, "Russia's peace conditions will likely include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas and Novorossiya, the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries from Ukraine, and documented guarantees that Ukraine will not participate in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) activities. The formation of a 'buffer zone' will also be discussed."
Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference on May 11, "We propose to the Ukrainian authorities to resume negotiations in Istanbul on May 15." This is a call to return to the talks that were suspended in Istanbul in March 2022 and restart the dialogue. Russia claims that the negotiations at that time were nearly concluded but ultimately broke down due to Ukraine's refusal. It is known that the draft agreement at the time included a provision for Ukraine to maintain a neutral and non-aligned status.
Dzhabarov commented on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's response?"I will wait for Putin in T?rkiye"?to President Putin's proposal for dialogue, saying, "He seems to be overestimating his role," and added that there is little chance the two leaders will meet directly.
The Russian daily Izvestia pointed out that President Zelensky passed a presidential decree in September 2022 banning direct negotiations with President Putin, calling this an obstacle. However, it added that Ukraine might revoke this decree before the negotiations on May 15.
Tigran Meloyan of the Mediterranean Studies Institute at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics told Izvestia, "Istanbul was proposed as a venue for technical talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, not as a place for a summit between the heads of state."
Meloyan criticized that if President Zelensky goes to Istanbul, it would be merely for propaganda purposes, and that a summit without technical preparation would end up as nothing more than a TV show.
Izvestia also noted that President Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump have been preparing for a meeting for three months since their phone call in February, emphasizing that "it is difficult to organize a high-level summit so quickly."
Russia is not responding to President Zelensky's remarks about meeting with President Putin, and is focusing on preparing for the Istanbul negotiations. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a phone call the previous day and discussed the issue of direct talks regarding the Ukraine situation.
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