Will Lee Jaemyung's "Frontrunner" Status Continue Throughout the Election Period?... Variables Include "Big Tent" and Yoon

Key Points to Watch in the June 3 Presidential Election
Rising Expectations for the First Democratic Party Government to Win a Majority
Public Attention on Former President Yoon Sukyeol and the Supreme Court Confirmation Hearing

One of the key points to watch in the June 3 presidential election is whether Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, can maintain his "frontrunner" status. As this election is widely seen as a contest of "Lee Jaemyung or not," attention is focused on whether rival candidates can find a breakthrough strategy to overturn the current dynamics.

Lee Jaemyung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, raises both arms high as he begins his first campaign rally at Cheonggye Square in Gwanghwamun, Seoul, a space symbolizing the "Revolution of Light," on the first day of official campaign activities for the 21st presidential election on May 12, 2025. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

As of May 12, the official start of the campaign, Lee Jaemyung is polling in the mid-to-high 40% to low 50% range in various public opinion surveys. According to a Realmeter poll released the previous day (conducted nationwide from May 7 to 9 among 1,508 adults aged 18 and over via wireless automated response, with a response rate of 6.7%), Lee Jaemyung's support stood at 52.1%. Kim Moonsu, the People Power Party candidate, received 31.1%, while Lee Junseok, the Reform Party candidate, garnered 6.3%. Although there are some variations across different polls, the gap between the first and second place candidates exceeds the margin of error. Moreover, as Lee Jaemyung enjoys a high proportion of supporters who are highly likely to vote, some analysts in the polling industry suggest that his actual vote share could surpass his poll numbers.

It remains to be seen whether Lee Jaemyung's strong momentum will translate into the first-ever majority vote for a Democratic Party government. Since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 1987, the only president to win a majority was former President Park Geunhye (18th election, 51.55%). Former President Kim Daejung won 40.3% in the 15th election, former President Roh Moo-hyun received 48.9% in the 16th, and former President Moon Jaein secured 41.1% in the 19th presidential election.

However, there are still variables that could influence the outcome of the election. Various verbal gaffes and debate remarks could become factors. Although Lee Junseok has so far drawn a line, the possibility of forming a "big tent" coalition under the banner of anti-Lee Jaemyung unity could also disrupt the race.

Attention is also focused on what role former President Yoon Sukyeol will play during the election period. On May 11, Yoon publicly declared his support for Kim Moonsu and called for his supporters to unite. It remains to be seen whether Yoon's actions will recreate the polarization seen during the impeachment crisis, or whether they will accelerate the defection of centrist voters.

The National Assembly confirmation hearing for Supreme Court Chief Justice nominee Cho Huidae, scheduled for May 14, is also drawing interest. It is noteworthy whether this hearing, which aims to address the controversy over the Supreme Court's alleged political involvement, will lead to further consolidation of Lee Jaemyung's support base or provoke a backlash in public opinion.