[Politics Focus] Han Ducksoo Pushes for "Unification by the 11th"... The Story Behind His Withdrawal Threat

6 p.m. on May 11: The Decisive Moment for Han Ducksoo's Fate
Without Unification, No 'No. 2 Ballot' or 'Financial Support'
Kim's Proposal for 'Unification Next Week' Met with "Essentially Saying Not to Unify"

For former Prime Minister Han Ducksoo, an independent presidential candidate, 6 p.m. on May 11 is a decisive turning point that will determine his fate. Having declared that he will definitely achieve a single candidacy with Kim Moonsu, the People Power Party's presidential candidate, Han has even considered withdrawing from the race as a last resort.

If he registers as an independent presidential candidate without achieving unification, not only will his chances of winning be jeopardized, but he will also face significant practical constraints. This is why, as soon as Kim Moonsu proposed "unification after a week of campaigning" on May 8, Han Ducksoo's spokesperson Lee Junghyun immediately rejected the idea, stating, "This is essentially a proposal not to unify."

Independent presidential candidate Han Deoksoo (center) is visiting the birthplace of former President Park Chunghee in Gumi, Gyeongbuk on the 8th. Photo by Yonhap News

The reason why 6 p.m. on May 11, the deadline for candidate registration for the 21st presidential election under the Public Official Election Act, serves as the critical deadline for unification negotiations is because of the disadvantages expected if Han registers as an independent candidate.

First, he will not be able to use the No. 2 ballot number for presidential candidates. After candidates from major parties with more seats are assigned the earlier numbers, candidates from minor parties follow, and independents are assigned the last numbers. If Han were the People Power Party's candidate, he would receive No. 2 based on the party's seat count, but as an independent, he would be assigned the lowest priority number. This puts him at a significant disadvantage in terms of vote-getting, given the nature of the election.

In the 2007 17th presidential election, former Prime Minister Lee Hoi-chang, who ran as an independent, was assigned No. 12. Despite his extensive political experience and proven vote-getting ability, his vote share remained around 15%. This case demonstrates how a politician, even one with a strong track record, faces an uphill battle when running as an independent rather than as a major party candidate.

If Han fails to register as the People Power Party's candidate by 6 p.m. on May 11, he will have to bear the disadvantages of running as an independent. He will not be able to receive campaign support or financial assistance from the People Power Party.

It is virtually impossible for Han to personally cover the presidential race's financial burden, which includes not only the 300 million won candidate deposit but also tens of billions to hundreds of billions of won in campaign expenses, camp operation costs, and personnel expenses. If he fails to secure at least 10% of the vote, he will not be reimbursed for campaign expenses. This is why he has stated that he will withdraw from the race if unification is not achieved.

Lee Junhan, a professor of political science and international relations at Incheon National University, assessed, "Given the disadvantages in ballot number, organization, and campaign financing, Han's chances of completing the presidential race as an independent are inevitably slim."