[New York Diary] The Shadow of Tariffs Looms Over Girl Scout Cookies in the US

A recent article in the American tabloid New York Post has attracted attention. It reported that sales of Girl Scout Cookies in New York City, a tradition with a 100-year history, have hit their lowest point in 11 years. Every year, Girl Scout members go around their communities from January to April, selling cookies directly. However, this year’s sales reached only 1.1 million boxes, the lowest since 2014, when sales were 1 million boxes. Compared to last year’s 1.22 million boxes, sales dropped by 10%. As the price of a box of cookies surged from $5 to $7 in just one year, consumers were hesitant to open their wallets.

This pro-Trump outlet pointed to Trump’s tariff policy as one of the reasons for the decline in cookie sales. While the price of cookies increased, the article argued that additional inflation caused by tariffs and growing concerns about economic uncertainty have led consumers to cut back on spending overall. The shadow of a tariff-induced recession has now reached even the boxes of cookies sold by children.

The contraction in American consumer sentiment is also clearly reflected in the restaurant industry’s performance. In the first quarter of this year, McDonald’s same-store sales in the United States dropped by 3.6% compared to a year earlier-the sharpest decline since the pandemic. Even the introduction of a $5 hamburger set menu last year, aimed at easing the burden on consumers, was not enough to prevent the decline in sales. Notably, visits from middle- and low-income customers fell by about 10%. Other chains such as Chipotle, Pizza Hut, and Starbucks also saw their sales decrease without exception. Americans are now cutting back even on everyday purchases like hamburgers, pizza, and coffee.

Behind this overall decline in consumption lies Trump’s tariff policy. He imposed double-digit tariffs on all countries and slapped an exceptionally high 145% tariff on China. After the mutual tariffs were officially implemented on April 2, concerns about inflation grew, and consumer sentiment quickly froze. In particular, retailers that relied on importing low-priced Chinese goods, such as large discount stores, have been hit hard, and the burden on working-class households is expected to increase further.

The most paradoxical aspect is that the biggest victims of the tariff policy are Trump’s core supporters. Workers in the Rust Belt (the declining industrial region) voted for Trump, believing his promise to bring factories back to America and create jobs through tariffs. However, raising tariffs against the entire world is highly likely to cause price increases and economic slowdown in the United States. The disposable income of middle- and lower-income households will decrease, and their livelihoods will inevitably become more difficult.

Kimberly Clausing, a professor at UCLA Law School and former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Tax Analysis at the U.S. Treasury Department under the previous Joe Biden administration, pointed out the regressive nature of tariffs in a recent interview with this reporter. She said, “Tariffs place a greater tax burden on lower-income groups,” and directly criticized, “Trump is causing even greater economic anxiety for the workers he promised to help.” While Americans have been able to buy affordable imported goods thanks to free trade, in the protectionist era ushered in by Trump, they now have to pay higher prices for the same products. Tariffs have become, not a shield protecting workers, but a self-defeating move that tightens the squeeze on ordinary people.

Now, public opinion in the United States is shifting. Trump, who once touted himself as the “economic president,” has seen his brief honeymoon period after inauguration come to an end and is now facing a decline in approval ratings. According to a Washington Post poll, Trump’s approval rating just before his 100th day in office stands at 39%, the lowest on record. Amid concerns about stagflation (rising prices alongside economic stagnation) caused by the tariff onslaught, last month saw simultaneous sharp declines in the three major assets-stocks, the dollar, and government bonds-fueling even greater dissatisfaction within the United States.

Externally, China has not yielded at all to tariff pressure, and both Canada and the European Union are considering retaliatory measures against the United States even as they negotiate. Domestically, resistance from consumers and businesses is intensifying. Although Trump’s tariffs have thrown the world into panic, the U.S. economy is also unlikely to escape the backlash. Over time, Trump’s tariff policy appears to be losing both momentum and credibility. Amidst the flip-flopping of imposing and suspending tariffs, perhaps the one feeling the most urgent pressure right now is Trump himself.