Tight Security: Mobile Phone Restrictions in Most Areas of the Vatican
At Least $19 Million Wagered in Related Betting Markets
The conclave to elect the successor to Pope Francis, who passed away last month, will begin at 3 p.m. local time on May 7 at the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican. During the conclave, mobile phone communications will be restricted in most areas of the Vatican.
On May 5, the Holy See announced that all 133 cardinal electors participating in the conclave had arrived in Rome, Italy. According to the Associated Press, this conclave features cardinals from 69 countries, the highest number of nationalities in history. In comparison, when Pope Francis was elected in 2013, cardinals from 48 countries participated.
On the first day of the conclave, there will be one round of voting, followed by four rounds per day?two in the morning and two in the afternoon?on subsequent days. During this period, the cardinals will be strictly isolated from the outside world in the Sistine Chapel and must continue to vote daily until a candidate receives at least two-thirds of the votes required to become the new pope.
If no pope is elected after three days of voting, the cardinals will pause voting for one day to seek guidance through prayer and discussion.
The cardinals must leave all personal mobile phones outside before entering the conclave, and all forms of communication with the outside world?including phone calls, internet, and newspapers?are strictly prohibited. The Vatican police will deploy electronic security devices to monitor compliance with these regulations.
The British daily The Guardian, citing an announcement by the Vatican City State government, reported that the mobile communication signal transmission system within Vatican City territory will be deactivated during the conclave. However, St. Peter’s Square, where many Catholic faithful gather to await the announcement of the new pope, will be an exception. The suspended mobile phone signals are expected to be restored after the announcement of the next pope.
The British weekly The Economist reported on May 5 that at least $19 million (approximately 26.4 billion won) has been wagered in betting markets related to the conclave. This is nearly 50 times more than the inflation-adjusted amount wagered during the 2013 election of Pope Francis.
This sum has accumulated across three betting platforms: Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair. According to The Economist’s analysis of the betting landscape as of May 5, the leading candidate is Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin (28%). He is followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (18%), Matteo Zuppi of Italy (10%), Peter Turkson of Ghana (9%), and Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Italy (9%). Cardinal Parolin was neck and neck with Cardinal Tagle until May 1, but has since widened the gap.
The Economist also reported that, aside from the top ten candidates, there is a 6% probability that a completely unexpected figure will be elected as pope.
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