[Global Focus] Japan's Rice Prices Soar 92.1%, US Faces Eggless Easter... Red Alert for Global Food Tables

Japan Faces Ongoing Rice Shortage,
Private Imports Surge 20-Fold
US Struggles with "Eggflation"... Prices Up 41% This Year
Global Food Security at Risk... Negative Impact on Inflation

Warning signs are flashing for food prices around the world. In Japan, rice prices have been soaring since last year, while in the United States, egg prices continue to rise, leading to the disappearance of Easter eggs. The increase in prices of essential food items is raising concerns, as it directly impacts the wallets of ordinary consumers.

Japan's Rice Prices Double in a Year... Private Imports Surge 20-Fold

Japan has been experiencing a surge in rice prices since last summer. This is being called the "Reiwa Rice Panic" (Reiwa is the current imperial era). It is the first such event in about 30 years since the "Heisei Rice Panic" in 1993. According to Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, rice prices in March jumped 92.1% compared to the same month last year. This is the largest increase since comparable statistics became available in 1971. Rice prices at supermarkets have risen for 14 consecutive weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the average price for 5 kilograms of rice from March 31 to April 6 was 4,214 yen (about 42,284 won). The Japanese government released 210,000 tons of reserve rice in two rounds last month to expand supply, but prices continue to rise.

As in Korea, rice is a staple food in Japan, and rice tariffs are considered a "sanctuary" in trade. However, due to the ongoing surge in rice prices, there is now talk in US-Japan tariff negotiations of expanding tariff-free imports of American rice. In Korea, after importing 2 tons of rice last month, there are plans to import an additional 20 tons. This is the largest amount since relevant statistics began in 1990. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), private rice imports in Japan have soared 20-fold this year. Major trading companies such as Kanematsu and Shinmei, a rice wholesaler, each plan to import about 20,000 tons. Other major trading houses, including Itochu, Marubeni, and Sumitomo, are also expected to join in. Nikkei pointed out that imported rice is subject to a tariff of 341 yen per kilogram, but even after paying the tariff, it sells for about 3,000 yen per 5 kilograms at retail, making it cheaper than Japanese rice (4,000 to 5,000 yen).

A Japanese restaurant owner is cooking rice using Calrose rice from California, USA. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

The Japanese government has cited several reasons for last year's unusual surge in rice prices: a reduction in rice distribution due to the heatwave in 2023, panic buying driven by concerns over earthquakes, and supply chain issues. However, even after the new 2024 rice harvest began to be shipped, rice shortages persist. Some observers attribute this to a sharp increase in rice consumption due to the rise in inbound tourism, while others suspect speculative forces are at play.

As rice prices continue to climb, Japanese dining habits are changing. Although there is strong pride in the quality of domestically produced rice and a preference for Japanese rice, the sharp price increases and shortages have led to imported rice appearing on Japanese tables. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has started using Taiwanese rice in its staff cafeterias. For Japanese tourists visiting Korea, buying rice at supermarkets has become a must-do shopping activity. Hirano Arata, who runs a restaurant in Tokyo, told Reuters that he switched from Japanese rice to Calrose rice from California due to soaring prices, and said, "Unless the price of Japanese rice falls below that of Calrose rice, I have no intention of switching back."

Eggs Become "Gold Eggs"... Potatoes Replace Eggs at US Easter Due to "Eggflation"

While Japan is struggling with a rice shortage, the United States is suffering from "eggflation" (egg + inflation). The aftermath of avian influenza has sent egg prices soaring, resulting in the disappearance of Easter eggs. Instead, people have started decorating potatoes or marshmallows in place of eggs.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of a dozen eggs last month reached an all-time high of $6.227 (about 8,964 won). This is double the price compared to last year. According to the US Department of Agriculture, egg prices soared 65% last year and are expected to rise another 41% this year. At one point, people lined up at stores to buy eggs as soon as they opened, and some retailers imposed per-person purchase limits.

This is largely due to the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. According to Bloomberg's analysis of reports from the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), there were 40 million cases of poultry deaths related to avian influenza on US farms this year. This is the highest quarterly figure since 2015. Since 2022, repeated outbreaks of avian influenza in US poultry flocks have resulted in the deaths of more than 165 million birds to date.

The upward trend in egg prices is expected to continue for some time. Emily Metz, president of the American Egg Board, said, "It will take nine months to a year for the industry to fully recover."

The US government is attempting to alleviate the situation by importing eggs. Last month, the state of Georgia imported 20 tons of eggs from a farm in Korea.

With egg prices so high, more people are raising chicks themselves. According to the 2025 industry report released last month by the American Pet Products Association, about 11 million households are raising chickens in their backyards, a 28% increase compared to 2023. Egg smuggling is also rampant in southern border areas adjacent to Mexico. According to the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the number of egg smuggling cases detected nationwide has increased by 36% so far this fiscal year. This is because the average price of a dozen eggs in Mexico is around $2, only a third of the US price.

People receiving eggs at a free egg distribution event in New York, USA. Photo by Getty Images Yonhap News

Global Food Security at Risk... Vulnerability to Tariffs

The surge in food prices cannot be dismissed as a phenomenon unique to the United States and Japan. Climate change is causing food shortages in many parts of the world. According to the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), a sharp increase in rainfall due to climate change led to a drastic drop in major crop yields in the UK last year. Compared to the previous year, wheat yields fell by 21%, winter barley by 26%, and rapeseed by 32%. The Guardian reported that in 2023, extreme heat in Latin America caused Argentina's wheat production to fall 30% below the five-year average.

In the short term, the direction of the Trump administration's tariff policy is also a concern. If a trade war spreads globally, it will have a significant impact on food prices. Unlike industrial goods, which can be stockpiled in warehouses, fresh foods have a short shelf life and are more vulnerable to tariff impacts. Although the following figures are limited to the United States, according to the Yale Budget Research Center, if President Trump's tariffs announced on April 2 are added to existing tariffs, prices of fresh produce will rise by 4%, and overall food prices by 2.8%. However, some foods are even more vulnerable to tariffs. The United States imports 99% of its coffee. While a rise in egg prices, consumed daily by only 10% of Americans, caused nationwide turmoil, a rise in coffee prices?which is consumed daily by 63% of US adults?would have an even greater impact.

Rising food prices lead to higher inflation and increase the burden on consumers. For example, in Japan, the 92.1% rise in rice prices in March led to a 7.4% year-on-year increase in food prices and a 3.2% rise in consumer prices. Saito Taro, chief economist at NLI Research Institute, explained, "Food inflation is a major driver of overall inflation."