[AK Radio] Can Lee Jae Myung Surpass 90% of Votes in Honam?

Turnout in August's Party Convention Was Below the National Average
Defeat in the April 2 Damyang By-Election to the Cho Kuk Innovation Party
Lee Jae Myung Stays in Honam for Two Days to Appeal for Support

The Democratic Party is currently holding a regional primary in the Honam region (Gwangju, Jeonnam, Jeonbuk). On the 26th, a joint speech event will be held at the Kim Daejung Convention Center in Seo-gu, Gwangju, marking the conclusion of a three-day voting period for party members with voting rights (including delegates). In the previous votes held in the Chungcheong and Yeongnam regions, candidate Lee Jae Myung received 89.56% of the votes. Candidate Kim Dong Yeon received 5.27%, and candidate Kim Kyung Soo received 5.17%. Given this trend, it is highly likely that Lee Jae Myung will secure a majority and be confirmed as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in the results to be announced at the joint speech event for the Seoul metropolitan area, Gangwon, and Jeju, which will be held at the Kintex Exhibition Center in Gyeonggi Province on the 27th.

The outcome of the Honam primary is drawing particular attention. There are 371,105 party members with voting rights in the Honam region, accounting for 33% of the total 1,123,383 members. This is significantly higher than the 110,131 in the Chungcheong region and 100,299 in the Yeongnam region. As Honam is a traditional stronghold and highly symbolic for the Democratic Party, the results here could influence the outcome of the metropolitan area primary as well.

During the last presidential primary, the only region where Lee Jae Myung trailed behind candidate Lee Nak Yon was Gwangju and Jeonnam. At that time, in Jeonbuk, Lee Jae Myung led by 16.07% with 54.55% to Lee Nak Yon's 38.48%. However, in Gwangju and Jeonnam, Lee Jae Myung received 46.95%, falling behind Lee Nak Yon's 47.12% by 0.17%. In the by-election held on April 2, the Democratic Party lost the Damyang county head position in Jeonnam to the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. For these reasons, there is keen interest in whether Lee Jae Myung can secure over 90% support in Honam, as he did in Yeongnam, where he received 90.81%. This time, the Democratic Party will announce the Honam primary results as a combined figure for Jeonbuk, Gwangju, and Jeonnam, rather than separating them. If the vote share exceeds 90%, the "inevitability" narrative is expected to solidify. If it is just over 80%, it may be seen as a sign of some cracks. If Lee Jae Myung receives a vote share in the mid-80% range, it is expected to be evaluated as a solid performance.

At last year's party convention in August, Lee Jae Myung received 83.61% in Gwangju and 82.48% in Jeonnam, both lower than his final overall vote share of 85.40%. Voter turnout was also below the national average. While the national average turnout was 42.18%, Gwangju recorded 25.29% and Jeonnam 23.17%. If turnout is low again this time, even a high vote share could prompt various criticisms. For this reason, the party is reportedly making efforts to boost turnout.

Starting on the 24th, Lee Jae Myung began a two-day visit to Honam. On the 24th, he visited Saemangeum and met with party members at Jeonil Building in Gwangju under the theme "Citizens Who Led Korea's Democratization." On the 25th, he will visit Naju and other locations in Jeonnam. He is also unveiling pledges, such as officially announcing the establishment of a public medical school in the Jeonbuk region, as he seeks to rally support.

Lee Jae Myung, the Democratic Party presidential primary candidate, visited the Saemangeum 33 Center in Jeonbuk on the morning of the 24th to inspect the Saemangeum area. Photo by Yonhap News

Candidate Kim Kyung Soo, who has focused on Honam from early on, including a visit to Jeonju, Jeonbuk on the 22nd, has presented "local autonomy and balanced development" as his core agenda and proposed a vision centered on the creation of a "Honam Mega City." Candidate Kim Dong Yeon is appealing to voters with Honam-tailored pledges, such as fostering climate industries and enshrining the spirit of the 5·18 Democratization Movement in the Constitution. He has also promised to establish a new east-west railway network and a national medical school in Jeonnam.