Wildfires Spread Frequently Across Regions... Climate Change Raises 'Alarm' Over Growing Risk [One Month After Uiseong Wildfire] ②

Wildfire Risk Spreads Nationwide Due to Climate Change
Simultaneous Wildfires and Large-Scale Fires Remain a Year-Round Threat
Gyeongbuk Faced High Wildfire Frequency and Damage Even Before the Uiseong Wildfire
Influenced by Local Characteristics of Low Rainfall and Dry Conditions

The risk of wildfires is increasing due to the effects of climate change. At wildfire sites, climate change is manifested by reduced rainfall and an increase in the number of hot days. In addition, stronger winds have been identified as a major risk factor in the process of small sparks developing into large-scale wildfires. There are also signs that climate change is reshaping the landscape of large wildfires. Warnings are emerging that a second or third Uiseong wildfire could occur at any time and in any place.

On the 25th of last month, the Uiseong wildfire spread to Andong, Gyeongbuk, causing the flames to expand. Photo by Yonhap News

◆Year-round, Large-scale, and Nationwide Wildfire Risk= According to the Korea Forest Service, from 2015 to 2024, there was an annual average of 546 wildfires, resulting in an annual average loss of 4,003 hectares of forest. Mathematically, this means that on average, 1.5 wildfires occurred each day, burning 11 hectares of forest per day.

Looking at the annual statistics for the past 10 years, 2017 had the highest number of wildfires with 692 cases, while 2022 saw the largest area affected, with 24,797 hectares burned.

2017 was the year of the Gangneung·Samcheok wildfire. This wildfire continued for four days (from May 6 to 8), destroying 1,017 hectares of forest (252 hectares in Gangneung and 765 hectares in Samcheok). Although there were no casualties, the damages included 60.5 billion won in property losses and 85 people displaced.

In 2022, large wildfires occurred in Uljin·Samcheok. The fire broke out on March 4 and lasted until the 13th, continuing for a total of 213 hours. The area of forest damaged by the wildfire was calculated at 14,140 hectares in Uljin and 2,162 hectares in Samcheok. At that time, property damage amounted to 908.6 billion won, and 335 people were displaced.

The main characteristic of recent wildfires is their increasing frequency regardless of region. From 2015 to 2024, Gyeonggi Province recorded the highest average number of wildfires per year, with 129.9 cases. Gyeongbuk, which includes Uiseong, ranked second with 85.8 cases per year.

Other regions in the top five for wildfire frequency included Gangwon (74.1 cases), Chungnam (39.6 cases), and Jeonnam (37.7 cases). In contrast, the five regions with the lowest number of wildfires during the same period were Jeju (0.3 cases), Gwangju (3.1 cases), Sejong (3.9 cases), Daejeon (6.5 cases), and Seoul (9.5 cases).

In terms of area affected by wildfires, Gyeongbuk recorded 2,107.07 hectares, Gangwon 1,101.28 hectares, Chungnam 283.11 hectares, Jeonnam 108.64 hectares, and Ulsan 58.61 hectares, indicating significant regional differences in the extent of damage. Analysts point out that whether or not a wildfire escalated into a large-scale event was the main factor determining the difference in damaged area.

Based on wildfire statistics from the past 10 years, Gyeongbuk had a relatively higher frequency and scale of wildfires even before last month's Uiseong wildfire compared to other regions. This appears to be influenced by the local characteristics of Uiseong County, which is known for its low rainfall and dry conditions.

◆The Cycle of 'Large Wildfires' Is Shortening and Breaking Regional Boundaries= In general, the Korea Forest Service classifies a wildfire as "large" when the area affected exceeds 100 hectares or when the fire lasts for more than 24 hours.

The Korea Forest Service identifies 12 representative large wildfires from 2005 to 2023. By year, these are: ▲2005, 1 case (Yangyang); ▲2017, 1 case (Gangneung·Samcheok); ▲2018, 2 cases (Goseong·Samcheok); ▲2019, 1 case (Goseong·Gangneung·Inje); ▲2020, 3 cases (Ulju·Andong·Goseong); ▲2021, 1 case (Andong·Yecheon); ▲2022, 1 case (Uljin·Samcheok); ▲2023, 2 cases (Hongseong·Geumsan·Daejeon).

The East Coast wildfire of 2000 is notorious as the "worst wildfire in history." Starting on April 7, 2000, in Hakya-ri, Toseong-myeon, Goseong-gun, Gangwon Province, the fire spread until April 15 to Goseong-gun, Samcheok-si, Donghae-si, Gangneung-si in Gangwon Province, and Uljin-gun in Gyeongbuk, burning 23,448 hectares of forest and displacing about 850 people.

However, as of the 18th, the provisional area affected by the Uiseong wildfire has been tallied at 104,000 hectares, making it the new "worst wildfire in history," surpassing the East Coast wildfire. The provisional area damaged by the Uiseong wildfire is 4.3 times larger than that of the East Coast wildfire.

There is no guarantee that a second or third Uiseong wildfire (breaking the record for the worst wildfire in history) will not occur in the future. Since 2017, at least one large wildfire has occurred every year, and it has become increasingly difficult to predict where large wildfires will break out, making the situation challenging for forest authorities.

An official from the Korea Forest Service stated, "Until now, there has been an unspoken consensus that large wildfires mainly occur in the Gangwon·East Coast region between March and April. However, recently, it has become difficult to accept this as a given. This, too, is largely due to the effects of climate change."

The Gangwon·East Coast region is known to be greatly affected by dry weather and strong winds (Yangganjipung) due to its topography, including the Baekdudaegan mountain range. In addition, the simple pine forests in this area, where the upper parts of trees easily catch fire and allow flames to spread rapidly, have been cited as environmental factors conducive to large-scale wildfires. This explains why large wildfires have frequently occurred in this region during spring.

However, in recent years, large wildfires have become more frequent not only in the Gangwon·East Coast region but also in areas such as Gyeongnam and Gyeongbuk, showing a different pattern from the past. The prevailing view inside and outside the Korea Forest Service is that, due to the effects of climate change, it is no longer unusual for a second or third Uiseong wildfire to occur at any time and in any region.