[US-China New Cold War Era ①] US Indo-Pacific Alliances vs. China’s Non-Western Coalition... Military Tensions Rise in 'Hardline Confrontation'

U.S. Mobilizes Quad and AUKUS... "Welcomes 'One Theater' Initiative"
China Strengthens BRICS, Belt and Road, and ASEAN Alliances
Dueling Drills over Taiwan... "For China, Taiwan Is a Legitimacy Issue"

Editor's Note
The world has entered a new era of the "New Cold War." The United States and China, rivals and partners for decades, are now threatening each other's security and economies, with tensions running higher than ever. This comes just three months after the launch of the Trump administration. An economic war is entering a new phase, effectively under a trade embargo. Economic decoupling between the two countries, which together account for about 43% of global GDP, is already underway. Furthermore, the conflict is escalating into a full-scale confrontation, encompassing supply chains, platforms, technology, and diplomacy. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has reported that "the breakdown in U.S.-China relations has cast the shadow of a new Cold War," warning that "as economic ties unravel, the overall security and economic stability of the world will be at risk for years to come." In response, this publication is running a three-part series examining the reality and impact of the power struggle between these two superpowers in the military, technology, and economic sectors.

Military and diplomatic relations between the United States and China are on a knife-edge. The Donald Trump administration is strengthening its efforts to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region through multilateral security cooperation. In response, China is building a non-Western alliance and expanding its military power through a civil-military fusion strategy. Analysts believe that at the root of this volatile situation is a geopolitical power struggle that neither side is willing to concede.

U.S. Strengthens Indo-Pacific Alliances to Contain China... China Builds Non-Western Coalition

AP Yonhap News

On January 21 (local time), the day after President Trump’s inauguration, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a joint statement following the Quad (a security dialogue among the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India) foreign ministers’ meeting. He stated, "We remain committed to the belief that peace, stability, and security in all domains, including the maritime domain, underpin the development and prosperity of the people of the Indo-Pacific. We strongly oppose any unilateral action to alter the status quo by force or coercion." Although Secretary Rubio did not directly name any country using "force or coercion," this was interpreted as an expression of concern over China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

The Quad was established in 2007 during the George W. Bush administration, led by the United States, to coordinate joint responses to disasters in the Indian Ocean. With China’s rapid rise, the Quad has increasingly taken on the character of a security dialogue implicitly aimed at containing China. The fact that this Quad meeting, which marked Secretary Rubio’s diplomatic debut, was held almost simultaneously with the launch of Trump’s second administration, is seen as a symbolic indication that containing China is America’s top priority.

In addition to the Quad, the United States is strengthening multilateral cooperation frameworks in the Indo-Pacific region, such as the AUKUS (U.S.-U.K.-Australia security alliance) and the informal security dialogue SQUAD (U.S., Japan, Australia, Philippines). Last month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth welcomed Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani’s "One Theater" initiative, which regards the Korean Peninsula, East China Sea, and South China Sea as a single theater of operations. America’s positive response to this strategy appears to be driven by a calculation to further strengthen defense cooperation among key Indo-Pacific countries to put more pressure on China.

China perceives these moves by the United States as a direct challenge to its own security. China is building global leadership to counter the U.S. through the BRICS bloc of emerging non-Western economies and the Belt and Road Initiative (connecting China, Central Asia, and Europe via land and sea "Silk Roads"). Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping made state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia?countries hit by U.S. "tariff bombs"?continuing his campaign against "hegemonism" aimed at the United States.

In particular, China poses a major military threat to the United States through the rapid expansion of its naval power. According to the U.S. Department of Defense’s "2024 China Military Power Report" published last year, the Chinese navy is the world’s largest, with more than 370 ships and submarines, and is projected to grow to 395 ships this year and 435 by 2030. In contrast, the U.S. Navy, whose domestic shipbuilding industry has lost competitiveness since the Cold War, operated 295 warships as of the end of last year. In terms of merchant shipping?which is crucial for transporting strategic materials in emergencies?China owns more than 7,000 ships, while the U.S. reportedly has fewer than 200.

This rapid growth in China’s military power is seen as the result of the government’s civil-military fusion strategy. James David Spellman, CEO of the consulting firm Strategic Communication, said, "The Chinese government is pursuing a civil-military fusion policy to realize its vision of safeguarding sovereignty, leveraging civilian innovation and production capacity for military purposes. This not only helps China acquire dual-use technologies, but also serves as a means to revive its economy, which is shifting from export-driven to consumption-driven growth."

He continued, "China appears to have achieved results in areas such as drones, hypersonic missiles, AI-based surveillance technologies, and the Beidou satellite navigation system through civil-military fusion. These technologies play a key role in naval power in the South China Sea, in cyber and space capabilities, and in nuclear weapons modernization. As China’s military-industrial complex becomes a major factor in reshaping alliance structures and influencing trade flows, rival countries are adjusting their strategies accordingly."

U.S. and China Hold Dueling Drills over Taiwan..."A Vicious Cycle Is Repeating"

In February, the U.S. State Department updated its official "Fact Sheet on U.S. Relations with Taiwan," removing the phrase "We do not support Taiwan independence." Instead, it stated, "Differences across the Taiwan Strait should be resolved peacefully, without coercion, and in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait."

China immediately protested, demanding that the U.S. correct its mistake. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated, "Taiwan is part of China. The People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing all of China," and emphasized, "(The United States) must avoid causing further serious damage to U.S.-China relations and to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."

This diplomatic clash over Taiwan quickly escalated into military tensions. Earlier this month, the People’s Liberation Army conducted a large-scale encirclement exercise around Taiwan, mobilizing ground, naval, and air forces. Notably, China gave this exercise a new name: "Strait Rating-2025A." Considering that last year’s "Lijian" exercises?conducted in response to President Lai Chingte’s National Day speech?were held twice under the names "2024A" and "2024B," this signals that such military drills may not be a one-off event.

The United States responded with missile deployments. On April 16, the U.S. military announced it would deploy the "Navy/Marine Corps Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS)"?an anti-ship missile system?for the first time during "Balikatan," the largest annual U.S.-Philippines joint exercise, which runs through May 9 in waters near Taiwan. NMESIS is a key weapon system for the U.S. to blockade China at sea. Analysts expect that, should the Chinese military provoke in the Taiwan area, including the South China Sea, the U.S. will conduct operations to counter China’s forces with missile power. In this context, Secretary Hegseth said, "This demonstrates an ironclad alliance and strength in the face of the Chinese Communist Party’s aggression," while Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner stated, "If anything happens to Taiwan, our involvement will be inevitable."

Experts analyze that China’s continued "shows of force" against Taiwan, despite strong U.S. pressure, reflect the complex nature of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy issues. Lori Daniels, director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said, "For China, the Taiwan issue is a domestic political dispute that should be resolved by China and Taiwan themselves, without outside interference. Solving this issue is seen as both addressing the unfinished business of the Chinese Civil War and as a core element in securing the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party." She continued, "China’s repeated military exercises reflect anxiety over the possibility that Taiwan might legally declare independence and that countries around the world might officially recognize it. This is evidenced by China’s large-scale military drills every time there is an event such as then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan, pro-U.S. and anti-China statements by President Lai Chingte, or actions by the U.S. to strengthen its ties with Taiwan."

Daniels pointed out that China’s unwavering position that "there is only one China" and America’s fear that the Taiwan issue might be resolved by Chinese force?and the resulting military tensions?only worsen the situation. She said, "U.S. military strategists perceive China’s military exercises targeting Taiwan as a threat to the United States, which creates a vicious cycle leading to the very outcome China most wants to avoid: a stronger U.S. military response." She emphasized, "This dynamic benefits no country?not Taiwan, not China, not the United States, nor any nation in the world. What is needed now is courageous leadership that can break the cycle of miscommunication and ease tensions."