With Oh Se-hoon and Yoo Seung-min Out, the Race Shifts
Han Donghoon and Ahn Cheolsoo, the 'Pro-Impeachment' Candidates, Expected to Benefit
Yoon's Influence and Han Ducksoo Endorsement Movement Add New Variables
The race for the People Power Party's presidential primary has been volatile from the start. Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, both moderate conservatives, have declared their withdrawal, and the intra-party movement to endorse Han Duck-soo has gained momentum, creating many variables. The possibility of an alliance among the anti-impeachment (bantan) faction and the expanding influence of former President Yoon Seok-yeol are also factors increasing uncertainty. With the first primary about a week away, the competition among candidates vying for the 'top 4' spots is expected to intensify.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is drinking water at the 1st Seoul Innovation University Support Committee meeting held at the Press Center in Jung-gu, Seoul on February 24, 2025. Photo by Jo Yong-jun
According to political circles and polls on the 14th, the four candidates likely to advance to the People Power Party's second primary, to be announced on the 22nd, are former Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, former party leader Han Dong-hoon, and one of the lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo or Na Kyung-won. Although their support rates are not yet high, there is also talk of the possible entry of lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun, who gained recognition during the impeachment period, or Lee Cheol-woo, Governor of North Gyeongsang Province (Daegu-Gyeongbuk, TK), who is rallying support in the TK region.
The biggest variable is where the votes of Mayor Oh and former lawmaker Yoo, who have dropped out of the race, will go. The candidates have immediately begun courting the moderate conservative voters who have lost their preferred candidates. Regarding Mayor Oh, who was considered part of the 'Big 4,' former Minister Kim, former Mayor Hong, lawmaker Ahn, and former leader Han are all vying to "carry on his will." However, political circles note that Mayor Oh and former lawmaker Yoo have emphasized the inevitability of former President Yoon's impeachment and criticized the People Power Party's attitude of not reflecting after the December 3 emergency martial law and impeachment, so it is expected that those who have expressed opposition to martial law and support for impeachment will benefit.
Whether Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will run is also a variable. Currently, many analyses suggest that Acting President Han will run as an independent and later unify with a conservative candidate. However, in this case, the primary could effectively become a preliminary event for Acting President Han, which is likely to provoke strong opposition from other candidates. At a crisis management committee meeting held at the National Assembly on the morning of the same day, Emergency Committee Chairman Kwon Young-se said, "All candidates must start from the same starting line and compete under the same standards. There will be no endorsement of any particular person, nor will anyone be disadvantaged," attempting to quell the movement to endorse Acting President Han.
Former Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, who declared his presidential candidacy, and Na Kyung-won, a member of the People Power Party, are entering together on the 12th to hold a youth meeting at a fast food restaurant inside Chung-Ang University in Dongjak-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News
The possibility of unification among the anti-impeachment candidates, including former Minister Kim, lawmaker Na, and lawmaker Yoon, is also considered a variable. On the 12th, former Minister Kim and lawmaker Na met at a fast-food restaurant in Dongjak District, Seoul, and left the door open for an alliance, saying, "We will cooperate with anyone," and "There are quite a few shared views." If realized, the primary is expected to evolve into a contest between the anti-impeachment and pro-impeachment factions.
Meanwhile, as the People Power Party primary is increasingly likely to become a power struggle, efforts to recruit members of Mayor Oh's camp, who have declared their withdrawal, are expected to be active. A member of Mayor Oh's camp told Asia Economy in a phone interview, "Recently, camps of those who have declared their candidacy have contacted us asking for help," adding, "It seems they want to strengthen their camps and gather forces before the primary officially begins."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
