[Yoon Government 2030, Where Did They Buy Houses?] 'Small but Seoul' vs 'Greater Benefits in Gyeonggi-do'

① The Only Trustworthy Place Is the Seoul Metropolitan Area
Share of 'In-Seoul' Purchases Doubles... 2030s Rush to Seoul
"Seoul Is Invincible": Strong Belief Leads to Smaller Units, More Loans
"If Not Seoul, Then Gyeonggi Province"... 'Leaving Seoul' Trend Also Emerges
Strengthened Concentration in the Metropolitan Area Amid Coexistence of 'In-Seoul' and 'Leaving Seoul'

During the two years of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, the trend of homeownership among the 20s and 30s generations split into two major paths: 'small but in Seoul' or 'affordable with many benefits in Gyeonggi Province.' Although their choices differed, their steps headed toward the Seoul metropolitan area, while ignoring the provinces. This resulted in an even stronger concentration in the metropolitan area than during the Moon Jae-in administration. As more young people view homes as a means of asset accumulation and trust in real estate policies has collapsed, this is analyzed as a strategic choice aiming to benefit from rising housing prices.

2030 Homeownership Also Aims for 'In-Seoul'

According to the 'Apartment Transaction Status by Age Group' from the Korea Real Estate Board on the 15th, the proportion of apartment purchases in Seoul by the 2030 generation jumped from 6.14% in June 2022, when the Yoon Suk-yeol government took office, to 13.39% last year. Among the 17 metropolitan local governments, Seoul showed the highest increase over two years. During the Moon Jae-in administration in 2019, the 2030 generation's share of apartment purchases in Seoul peaked at 14.81%, then declined to 12.84% in 2020 and 10.00% in 2021. It dropped sharply to 6.14% in 2022, the year of the regime change, but quickly recovered under the Yoon Suk-yeol government.

The 2030 generation's preference for Seoul apartments is also clearly reflected in area statistics. Last year, the average size of apartments purchased by the 2030 generation in Seoul was 68.1㎡, the smallest among the 17 metropolitan local governments. This is much smaller than the 'national standard size' of 84㎡. Although they have no choice but to take out bank loans, Seoul is still regarded by them as a 'solid asset.' Ham Young-jin, head of the Real Estate Research Lab at Woori Bank, analyzed, "Based on past experience, the preference for safe assets has manifested as a concentration in Seoul. Even when apartment prices fell nationwide in 2023, Seoul relatively succeeded in 'price defense,' which strengthened that belief."

It is important to pay attention to the 2030 generation's homeownership trend because they are the 'major players' in the apartment market. Last year, the age group that purchased the most apartments nationwide was those in their 20s and 30s, buying 148,918 households. This accounted for 30.2% of the total 492,052 apartment transactions during the same period. Next were the 40s (128,920 transactions, 26.2%), 50s (105,013 transactions, 21.3%), 60s (69,418 transactions, 14.1%), and 70s and above (30,991 transactions, 6.3%). Many in the 2030 generation have lived in apartments since childhood, and their preference for apartments as a housing type is very high.

Better the Egg White than the Yolk, Leaving Seoul Is Also Okay

For the 2030 generation who find it difficult to enter Seoul, their attention turned to the surrounding metropolitan areas such as Gyeonggi Province and Incheon. Last year, the 2030 generation's share of apartment purchases in Gyeonggi Province reached 28.83%, an increase of 5.24 percentage points from 23.59% two years ago. Since the Korea Real Estate Board began compiling related statistics in 2019, Gyeonggi Province has been the region where the 2030 generation purchased the most apartments annually in terms of volume. Including Incheon (6.23% in 2024), the 2030 generation's share of apartment purchases in the metropolitan area jumped from 35.17% in 2022 to 48.45% in 2024. Conversely, the share of apartment purchases in the provinces fell from 64.83% in 2022 to 51.55% in 2024.

Experts describe this as a "de facto 'Second In-Seoul' strategy." Park Won-gap, senior real estate specialist at KB Kookmin Bank, said, "Realistically, the 2030 generation who cannot afford the expensive apartment prices in Seoul are choosing Gyeonggi Province as a substitute, showing a 'leaving Seoul' phenomenon." Ham Lab chief added, "If they cannot get into Seoul, the trend of moving to Gyeonggi Province, which offers convenient transportation, solid living infrastructure, and institutional benefits such as price ceiling systems and special supply for first-time homebuyers, continues to appear."

Government Loses Trust in Real Estate Policies

Whether 'in-Seoul' or 'leaving Seoul,' experts generally point out that the 2030 generation's concentrated homeownership in the metropolitan area stems from 'distrust in the government's real estate policies.' The 2030 generation lacks expectations for the government's goal of stabilizing housing prices downward and is focused on a 'smart one-home' strategy to benefit from future price increases.

The Yoon Suk-yeol administration's inconsistent regulatory easing and low policy predictability increased buyers' anxiety. Policies repeatedly failed in the minority ruling National Assembly. Following the Moon Jae-in administration, multi-homeowner regulations continued, deepening polarization between preferred and non-preferred areas. Especially from the second half of 2023, as Seoul apartment prices rose again, impatience to "buy now" intensified.

Yang Ji-young, senior asset management consultant at Shinhan Investment Corp., analyzed, "The current 2030 generation is the most proactive in studying real estate. They quickly acquire information through YouTube and online communities and act based on the market rather than policies."