[Impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol] Presidential Hopefuls Stretching as Yoon's Impeachment is Accepted

Democratic Party: Lee Jae-myung vs. the 'New 3 Kims'
People Power Party: Pro-Impeachment vs. Anti-Impeachment Factions

On the 4th, as the Constitutional Court upheld the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-yeol, the ruling and opposition parties officially entered into an early presidential election mode. According to the constitution, if the president is removed from office, a presidential election must be held within 60 days, so there is not much time.

The leadership of the People Power Party is reported to have immediately transitioned to an election campaign committee system and begun preparations for the party primary. Although there are more than seven potential presidential candidates mentioned, including Han Dong-hoon, Kim Moon-soo, and Oh Se-hoon, in terms of readiness, they still have a long way to go compared to the opposition. Ruling party potential candidates who had been moving behind the scenes are also expected to take formal steps toward running. They have been on high alert in low-key mode about the possibility of removal since the impeachment trial verdict approached.

Those who supported the impeachment, such as former party leader Han Dong-hoon, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, are likely to move first. In particular, Han and Mayor Oh are said to have formed preliminary preparation teams and partially arranged campaign staff to be able to launch their presidential campaigns immediately upon the verdict.

Potential candidates who opposed the impeachment and had shown relatively cautious behavior are also expected to switch to election mode. Kim Moon-soo, Minister of Employment and Labor and the ruling party’s top supporter after the impeachment crisis, is expected to announce his intention to run. Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo and former Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong are also expected to begin active movements. As the ‘Yoon-sim successor’ (those inheriting President Yoon’s political will) emerges as a variable that could decide the outcome, fierce internal competition to win the strong supporter base’s votes is anticipated.

In the Democratic Party, ahead of the early presidential election, it is highly likely that the party will consolidate around the dominant opposition presidential candidate, party leader Lee Jae-myung. Last month, he was acquitted in the second trial on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act, resolving the ‘judicial risk’ that had been holding him back. Lee ranks first in preference as the next presidential candidate across all parties in various multi-candidate polls.

Based on his leadership that led to victory in the 22nd general election and a solid opposition support base, he has recently been expanding his support among moderate and conservative voters by emphasizing pragmatism. The Democratic Party is reported to have already completed candidate nomination strategies and organizational restructuring centered on Lee in preparation for the early election even before the impeachment was upheld.

Meanwhile, within the opposition, there are even discussions about endorsing Lee without a party primary. The so-called ‘New 3 Kims’ (Kim Dong-yeon, Governor of Gyeonggi Province; Kim Boo-kyum, former Prime Minister; and Kim Kyung-soo, former Governor of South Gyeongsang Province), who had been prominent opposition presidential candidates opposing Lee, have had their momentum stalled, affecting the internal presidential race dynamics.

Recently, their activities have not attracted much attention in political circles. Former Governor Kim Kyung-soo, who had conducted a hunger strike, has recently recovered his health and is focusing on public welfare at the site of the Gyeongnam wildfire. Earlier, Governor Kim Dong-yeon voiced demands to Lee for a constitutional amendment to shorten the presidential term, and former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum is also closely monitoring the situation.

Additionally, former lawmakers Jeon Jae-soo and Kim Du-kwan are mentioned as possible primary challengers. Former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon, who serves as the standing advisor of the New Future Democratic Party, has recently been emphasizing the ‘rational moderate forces’ and expanding his voice, while Lee Jun-seok, a lawmaker from the Reform New Party who was the first to declare his candidacy for the early election, has entered the election system and strengthened communication with the public.

Meanwhile, parties such as the National Innovation Party are advocating for an open primary (a fully national primary) considering the unification of opposition candidates. However, it is uncertain whether the Democratic Party will accept such proposals.