[Energy-topia] Nuclear Phase-Out or Decarbonization?

Taiwan’s Nuclear Phase-Out and Renewable Energy Experiment: The Current Reality
Nuclear Phase-Out Does Not Equal Decarbonization
South Korea Must Minimize Confusion by Learning from Taiwan’s Example

Recently, while preparing a feature article under the theme "Electric Power is National Power in the AI Era," I examined cases from various countries overseas. I looked into places that have announced plans to supply the electricity needed for advanced industries such as artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors solely through renewable energy. Among them, Taiwan was particularly interesting. Geopolitically, it is in a situation similar to that of South Korea, yet it is a country aggressively expanding renewable energy.

Taiwan, like South Korea, has a small land area and many mountainous terrains, which are unfavorable for solar power. Instead, it has relatively abundant offshore wind resources. Notably, Taiwan attracted attention by becoming a completely nuclear-free country this May when it shut down the Maanshan Unit 2 nuclear power plant, whose design life had ended. Taiwan, a country attempting complete nuclear phase-out while expanding renewable energy, was exactly the role model dreamed of by progressive environmentalists in South Korea.

Therefore, I wanted to visit Taiwan in person to hear about the local situation. Is nuclear-free Taiwan truly a renewable energy paradise? The reality was otherwise. Citizens and businesses were anxious about potential power shortages due to the nuclear phase-out. Renewable energy had not yet become a stable power source. Ultimately, the Taiwanese government proposed increasing the use of expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) power generation as a solution.

LNG power generation emits about half the carbon dioxide compared to coal power. Although it is a cleaner fuel than coal, domestic environmentalists strongly oppose it. Last year, when plans were announced to build an LNG power plant to supply electricity to the Yongin semiconductor cluster, environmental groups issued statements criticizing it as a step backward for carbon neutrality. Taiwan plans to increase the share of LNG power generation to over 50%. This is the current reality of nuclear-free Taiwan, which environmentalists highly praise.

As the nuclear phase-out became a reality, Taiwanese society also became unsettled. The political conflicts over nuclear power closely resembled those in South Korea. The opposition Kuomintang party strongly opposed the nuclear phase-out policy and politicized the issue. However, the Kuomintang had once advocated for nuclear phase-out themselves.

Officials from the Taiwanese government and Taiwan Power Company, who kindly agreed to interviews despite difficulties, were uniformly curious about the situation in South Korea. They wanted to know how social conflicts surrounding nuclear power are being resolved in South Korea and how high-level radioactive waste is being managed.

I wanted to proudly share South Korea’s example but could not. Fortunately, I was able to mention that after long struggles, the Special Act on High-Level Radioactive Waste passed the National Assembly last February, providing a clue toward resolution.

Taiwan plans to increase the share of renewable energy to 60-70% by 2050 and to achieve carbon neutrality by converting LNG power generation to hydrogen power or utilizing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology. However, until I left Taiwan, I remained skeptical about whether this plan could be achieved without nuclear power. There is a shortage of land for solar installations, and offshore wind construction costs are high.

As concerns about the nuclear phase-out grew, the Taiwanese government took a cautious stance, stating that it is also closely monitoring new nuclear technologies such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and nuclear fusion. However, these technologies are expected to be commercialized only by the mid-2030s. Unlike South Korea, Taiwan lacks its own nuclear technology, so adopting these technologies would take considerable time.

It is difficult to gauge the national losses Taiwan will have to bear after abandoning nuclear power. To minimize confusion like that in Taiwan, South Korea must quickly reach a social consensus. Is our goal nuclear phase-out or decarbonization?