Early Election 'Warning' Sent... Yoon Impeachment Judgment Before April 2 By-Election Defeat for Ruling Party [Political Insight]

People Power Party Suffers Crushing Defeat, Losing PK Region... Public Sentiment Critical of Yoon Confirmed
Democratic Party Wins 3, People Power Party 1, Joguk Innovation Party 1 in Local Government Head Elections
Progressive Candidate Wins Busan Superintendent of Education... Joguk Innovation Party Secures Its First Local Government Head
Democratic Party Achieves Substantive Victory, But Faces Challenges in Honam Public Sentiment

The results of the April 2 by-elections held ahead of the Constitutional Court's ruling on the impeachment trial of President Yoon Seok-yeol contained a 'hint of public sentiment' that the political circles in Yeouido need to ponder. The Busan superintendent of education was elected from a progressive candidate. Among the five basic local government heads, the Democratic Party secured three, while the People Power Party and the Joguk Innovation Party each produced one winner. The People Power Party confirmed the cold public sentiment through the election, and although the Democratic Party won in substance, challenges remain. The Joguk Innovation Party has raised expectations for the 9th nationwide simultaneous local elections on June 3 next year.

On the 28th of last month, when early voting for the April 2 by-election took place, a voter is casting a ballot at the early voting station set up at Gaebong 2-dong Community Center in Guro-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

According to the Central Election Commission on the 3rd, in the Busan superintendent of education re-election, candidate Kim Seok-jun (with 51.13% of the vote) defeated Jeong Seung-yoon (40.19%), who is from the 'pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-yeol)' faction. Jeong was a member of President Yoon's presidential campaign and served as the vice chairman of the Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission. Although he received strategic support from forces leading anti-impeachment rallies, he could not overcome the barrier of former Busan superintendent Kim Seok-jun.

It is noteworthy that the progressive candidate Kim recorded a higher vote share than Jeong in all 16 districts of Busan. Although they did not compete with party affiliations, this result offers insight into the direction of public sentiment in Busan for next year's local elections.

The defeat of the People Power Party in the mayoral election of Geoje City, Gyeongnam?a political stronghold?is also a painful point. Democratic Party candidate Byun Gwang-yong won with 56.75% of the vote, defeating People Power Party candidate Park Hwan-gi, who received 38.12%. In the mayoral election of Gimcheon City, Gyeongbuk, People Power Party candidate Bae Nak-ho was elected with 51.86% of the vote, but in another key battleground, the mayoral election of Asan City, Chungnam, the ruling party was defeated. Democratic Party candidate Oh Se-hyun won the Asan mayoral seat with 57.5% of the vote, beating People Power Party candidate Jeon Man-kwon, who garnered 39.9%.

The atmosphere within the People Power Party is evidently somber. On the morning of the same day, People Power Party lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun posted on his social media, "Our party suffered a crushing defeat." He added, "The defeats in the mayoral elections of Geoje City, Gyeongnam, and Asan City, Chungnam?both previously held by our party?are truly painful losses."

The Democratic Party is regarded as the winner of this by-election, having secured victories in the mayoral elections of Guro District in Seoul, Geoje City, and Asan City, as well as delivering satisfactory results in the metropolitan and basic local council elections in the Seoul metropolitan area. Winning the Gyeonggi Provincial Assembly election in Bundang, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province?a stronghold of the People Power Party?is also a meaningful achievement.

However, the loss in the Damyang County mayoral election, the only basic local government head election in Honam, is a painful setback. The Joguk Innovation Party defeated the Democratic Party in the Damyang County mayoral re-election, producing its first local government head since its founding. Elected candidate Jeong Cheol-won won 51.82% of the vote, beating Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-jong, who received 48.17%, becoming the mayor of Damyang County.

Regarding the Damyang County mayoral election results, there is analysis that a fierce contest between the Democratic Party and the Joguk Innovation Party over Honam will unfold in next year's local elections. Democratic Party chief spokesperson Cho Seung-rae stated in a written briefing, "Looking at the results of the April 2 nationwide by-elections held yesterday, we once again reflect on the sternness of public sentiment," adding, "The sovereign people have sent a clear warning that those who go against public sentiment and support rebellion will be judged."

Professor Cho Jin-man of the Department of Political Science at Duksung Women's University told Asia Economy in a phone interview, "The public sentiment revealed through the vote clearly shows criticism of President Yoon Seok-yeol and the current government," but also emphasized, "The Democratic Party should pay attention to the voter sentiment that warns not to take Honam public sentiment lightly."