① If Impeachment Is Upheld: Early Presidential Election... Both Parties Prepare for Primaries
② If Dismissed: Yoon Returns to Office, but Political Turmoil Continues
③ If Dismissed on Procedural Grounds: Possibility of Re-Impeachment After Addressing Opposition's Objections
With the Constitutional Court setting the date for the impeachment ruling on President Yoon Seok-yeol, attention is focused on the political changes that will follow the verdict. The entire country is in a psychological state of civil war over President Yoon's impeachment issue, making significant aftershocks inevitable regardless of the conclusion.
According to political circles on the 2nd, various speculations have emerged regarding the Constitutional Court's ruling. The political sphere, which considered the worst-case scenario to be no ruling before the retirement of Constitutional Court Justices Moon Hyung-bae and Lee Mi-seon, now views the ruling being delivered without passing next week?the final deadline?as an indication that the court, despite having only eight justices, has reached a conclusion free of controversy.
The opposition predicts an 8-0 ruling in favor of impeachment, while the ruling party anticipates a 4-4 decision resulting in dismissal or rejection. The interpretation that the outcome is no longer dependent on the appointment of Justice Ma Eun-hyuk is gaining traction, though speculation about a 5-3 deadlock still persists.
What situation will unfold after the Constitutional Court's ruling?
On the day of the impeachment trial verdict for Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, on the 24th of last month, the justices, including Moon Hyung-bae, Acting Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court, were seated in the courtroom of the Constitutional Court in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News
① If impeachment is upheld = In the event of a presidential vacancy, an early presidential election will be held according to the constitution. Following the precedent set during former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment, the election could take place on June 3. In the opposition camp, discussions on the primary are expected to continue centered around Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party leader and a leading presidential candidate. If the early election is confirmed, the party leader plans to step down and run as a primary candidate.
The ruling party faces a more complex situation. If impeachment is upheld, President Yoon's support base may direct their anger toward the current leadership. The Kwon Young-se and Kwon Seong-dong leadership has so far maintained a distance from the hardline faction symbolized by street protests. The People Power Party must prepare for a backlash while simultaneously gearing up for the presidential election. The primary is expected to be contested mainly between the pro-impeachment faction emphasizing election competitiveness and the anti-impeachment faction stressing clarity. However, if opinions diverge within the Constitutional Court regarding impeachment, there is a risk of dissent and refusal to accept the ruling.
② If impeachment is dismissed = President Yoon will return to office. In his final statement to the Constitutional Court, he expressed plans to "focus on foreign relations and significantly delegate domestic affairs to the Prime Minister," aiming to concentrate on constitutional amendments and political reform in the latter half of his term. Whether this plan will be properly implemented remains to be seen. According to his vision, the role of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, acting president and prime minister, should increase, but there are trust issues. Han previously stated that the State Council during the emergency martial law had "formal and substantial defects." Moreover, there is skepticism about whether the president's role will indeed be limited as initially planned. Within the ruling party, opinions suggest that "it will be difficult to complete the full term." At best, it may only buy time to hold the election.
The bigger problem lies with the opposition. Since the emergency martial law, the opposition, which has labeled President Yoon as a ringleader of rebellion, is unlikely to accept his return. This raises concerns about the emergence of large-scale refusal movements. Kim Yong-min, the Democratic Party's floor leader, said on KBS Radio, "The second martial law will be implemented immediately," expressing fears that "this could lead to a situation where many people will inevitably shed blood."
③ If the case is dismissed = If the Constitutional Court dismisses the impeachment on procedural grounds, the opposition is likely to push for re-impeachment. Since discussions about re-impeachment regarding Acting President Han have already been realistically considered within the opposition, similar debates concerning President Yoon are expected to arise. Whether re-impeachment will occur depends on whether the pro-impeachment movement seen among some ruling party members at the end of last year resurfaces, but confusion is inevitable. However, given the lengthy deliberations by the Constitutional Court, the prevailing view is that a dismissal ruling is unlikely.
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