[New York Stock Market] Mixed Close Amid Mutual Tariff Caution... Dow Up 1%

White House Announces "No Exemptions" for Reciprocal Tariffs on April 2
Trump States Policy to Impose on "Basically All" Countries
First Quarter Growth Rate Projected at 0.3% Amid Tariff Impact
Department of Labor's March Employment Report to Be Released on May 4

The three major indices of the U.S. New York Stock Exchange closed mixed on the last trading day of this month, the 31st (local time). The indices all fell sharply at the beginning of the session as the April 2nd reciprocal tariff announcement, dubbed 'Liberation Day' by U.S. President Donald Trump, approached. However, investors later flocked to dividend stocks, and technology stocks reduced their losses, leading some indices to rebound. Amid caution over tariff uncertainties, the market showed a strong wait-and-see stance.

Reuters Yonhap News

On this day in the New York stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Index), centered on blue-chip stocks, closed at 42,001.76, up 417.86 points (1.0%) from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index, focused on large-cap stocks, ended trading at 5,611.85, up 30.91 points (0.55%). Although it re-entered a technical correction phase by falling more than 10% from the February high earlier that morning, it succeeded in rebounding. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index closed at 17,299.29, down 23.7 points (0.14%).

Investors' attention is focused on the reciprocal tariff announcement two days later. According to the White House on this day, President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd at the White House Rose Garden, with his second-term staff fully assembled. White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt confirmed the policy of "no exemptions at this time" in response to questions about tariff exemptions. President Trump also told reporters the day before that he would impose reciprocal tariffs on "basically all" trading partners. If the U.S. formalizes reciprocal tariffs by country following the announcement of tariffs on items such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles, the Trump-led tariff war is expected to escalate to its peak.

As the reciprocal tariff announcement approaches, concerns are growing in the market that the U.S. economy will slow rapidly. According to a survey of 14 economists conducted by CNBC and released on this day, the U.S. real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter is expected to have increased by 0.3% annualized compared to the previous quarter. This is significantly below the finalized 2.4% GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of last year and is the lowest figure since 2022. Inflation, based on core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is expected to rise 2.8% in Q1, 2.6% in Q2, 3.0% in Q3, and then slow to 2.4% in Q4. Wall Street has raised the possibility of a recession. Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted on this day that U.S. GDP growth would be 0.2% in Q1 and 1% annually, raising the probability of a recession in the next 12 months from 20% to 35%.

Amid ongoing tariff uncertainties, future stock market outlooks are divided.

David Kostin, U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, lowered the year-end forecast for the S&P 500 Index from 6200 to 5700, stating, "If growth prospects and investor confidence deteriorate, valuations could fall more than expected."

Patrick Fruzetti, portfolio manager at Rose Advisors, also predicted, "More pain and volatility will continue," adding, "Without a consistent message from Washington, more investors will flock to safe assets."

On the other hand, Jay Woods, senior global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, analyzed, "We are trading under a veil of secrecy regarding tariff uncertainties and what will happen next," and "As a result, investors are selling first and waiting, which has all the elements of an imminent panic sell-off."

Investors are closely watching President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement this week while also awaiting key employment indicators. On May 1st, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs); on May 2nd, the private labor market research firm ADP will publish the March employment report; and on May 3rd, weekly initial jobless claims will be disclosed. The Department of Labor's March employment report, which includes both private and public sector employment and is a highly reliable indicator of overall labor market health, will be released on May 4th. Nonfarm payrolls for this month are expected to have increased by 139,000, falling short of February's 151,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.1%.

By individual stocks, Nvidia fell 1.18%, marking a decline of over 30% from its 52-week high. U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla dropped 1.67%. Dividend stocks Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson rose 1.78% and 1.3%, respectively. U.S. automakers Ford and General Motors (GM) increased by 3.19% and 0.75%, respectively.

U.S. Treasury yields declined. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a global bond yield benchmark, fell 3 basis points (1 bp = 0.01 percentage points) from the previous trading day to 4.21%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to monetary policy, dropped 1 basis point to 3.89%.