Japanese Cabinet Office Expert Panel Estimates
Assuming Magnitude 9 Nankai Mega-Earthquake
12.3 Million Evacuees, Damage Reaching 2,900 Trillion Won
New estimates suggest that if the anticipated Nankai Trough mega-earthquake, expected to occur within the next 30 years with an 80% probability in Japan, materializes, the death toll could reach 300,000.
(This photo is not directly related to the article) Damage site of the earthquake that occurred in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, in January last year. Photo by Yonhap News.
According to Kyodo News and Asahi Shimbun, on the 31st, an expert review panel from the Japanese Cabinet Office announced damage estimates assuming a magnitude 9.0 major earthquake occurs along the Nankai Trough, projecting 298,000 deaths and 12.3 million evacuees.
The Nankai Trough refers to a deep underwater valley extending from the sea off Shizuoka Prefecture west of the Tokyo metropolitan area to the southern part of Shikoku and the eastern sea area of Kyushu. Large earthquakes have occurred in this region every 100 to 150 years, with the most recent major earthquake occurring in 1946. Over 80 years have passed since then, and with recent successive earthquakes along the Nankai Trough, fears of another mega-earthquake are growing.
The damage scale announced by the Cabinet Office expert panel this time was estimated by calculating tsunami heights and inundation areas assuming a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs in the Hyuganada sea area off Miyazaki Prefecture in Kyushu.
The panel predicted that tsunamis over 3 meters high would reach a wide area from Okinawa Prefecture to Fukushima Prefecture. Observations also indicated that some areas in Kochi Prefecture could be hit by tsunamis as high as approximately 34 meters. As a result, the area expected to be inundated with water over 30 cm in height is estimated to be about 1,151 square kilometers.
Additionally, among the fatalities, 215,000 are expected to be caused by tsunamis. By region, the estimated death toll is highest in Shizuoka Prefecture with 101,000, followed by Miyazaki Prefecture with 33,000, and Mie Prefecture with 29,000.
The number of displaced persons is expected to reach 12.3 million, which corresponds to about 10% of the total population.
The red area indicates the impact zone of the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake. NHK broadcast capture
The economic damage is projected to reach up to 225 trillion yen (approximately 2,223 trillion won) in direct losses, including the complete destruction of 2.35 million buildings. When considering declines in economic activity and infrastructure disruptions, the total could rise to 292.3 trillion yen (approximately 2,889 trillion won). This amount is nearly half of Japan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of about 609 trillion yen last year.
Meanwhile, the Japanese government’s Earthquake Research Committee presented in January that the probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 Nankai mega-earthquake occurring within the next 30 years is "about 80%." Based on the newly released estimates, the Japanese government plans to revise the existing basic disaster prevention plan for the Nankai Trough mega-earthquake.
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