Public Opinion Shaken as Constitutional Court Ruling Delayed... "51% Expect Yoon's Dismissal" [Polpol News]

NBS Poll
58% Say Yoon Should Be Removed, 37% Say He Should Return
National Pension Reform: 39% Support, 46% Oppose

As the impeachment judgment on President Yoon Suk-yeol is delayed, public expectations regarding the impeachment outcome have also become unsettled. The public opinion favoring impeachment and dismissal still leads beyond the margin of error over the opinion that he should return to office.

President Yoon Seok-yeol, who was released from Seoul Detention Center, arrived in front of his residence in Hannam-dong, Seoul on the 8th, getting out of the vehicle and greeting his supporters. Photo by Yonhap News

According to the National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted from the 24th to the 26th by Embrain Public, K-stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (a nationwide mobile phone interview survey of 1,001 men and women aged 18 and older, with a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 18.0%), 51% of respondents predicted that the Constitutional Court would "approve the impeachment and dismiss" President Yoon, regardless of their personal stance or opinion. Meanwhile, 39% expected the court to "dismiss the impeachment and reinstate him." Compared to the previous survey, the forecast for impeachment approval decreased by 6 percentage points, while the forecast for reinstatement increased by 5 percentage points.

Regarding personal opinions on President Yoon's impeachment, 58% of respondents said he "should be impeached and dismissed." Those who believed he "should be reinstated by dismissing the impeachment" accounted for 37%, with the approval opinion leading the dismissal opinion by 21 percentage points beyond the margin of error. However, compared to the previous survey, the approval opinion decreased by 2 percentage points, and the dismissal opinion increased by 2 percentage points.

An interesting point is that 6% of respondents who advocated for dismissal of the impeachment predicted that the Constitutional Court would approve the impeachment and dismiss him, while 11% of those who supported impeachment predicted that the impeachment would be dismissed.

Trust in the Constitutional Court also declined. Trust in the court dropped by 7 percentage points from the previous week to 53%, while distrust increased by 4 percentage points to 40%.

Regarding the next presidential election, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, ranked first with 31%. Kim Moon-soo, Minister of Employment and Labor, received 8%, Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu, 6%, Oh Se-hoon, Mayor of Seoul, 5%, and Han Dong-hoon, former leader of the People Power Party, 5%.

Regarding the structure of the next presidential election, 51% supported the opposition party's regime change theory, while 37% supported the ruling party's regime continuation theory. Compared to last week, support for regime change remained the same, while support for regime continuation increased by 1 percentage point. Party support rates were 36% for the Democratic Party and 36% for the People Power Party. The Joguk Innovation Party had 7%, and the Reform New Party had 3%.

Regarding reform of the National Pension Service, 39% supported reform, while 46% opposed it. Among those in their 40s and younger, more than half opposed the reform, with opposition increasing as age decreased.

For detailed information related to the survey, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.