[Impeachment of Yoon Seok-yeol] The New Republic of Korea's '60-Day Presidential Election Journey' Begins

June 3 Presidential Election Most Likely
Candidate Registration Expected on May 10
Official Campaigning Begins on May 12
Early Voting Scheduled for May 29-30 Next Month

On the 4th, as the Constitutional Court upheld the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-yeol, the next presidential election is expected to be held by June 3 at the latest. The Public Official Election Act requires the presidential election date to be set within 60 days of the impeachment ruling. Considering the preparation for the election and the candidate selection procedures of each party, it is likely that the date will be designated close to the 60-day limit.

According to the National Election Commission, after the impeachment of President Yoon, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, acting as the president, must confirm and announce the election date by the 14th, which is 50 days before the election. The Public Official Election Act stipulates that "in the case of a re-election due to a presidential vacancy, the president must announce the election date at least 50 days before the election day" (Article 35, Paragraph 1).

Whether to designate the election day as a temporary public holiday will also be finally decided by Acting President Han. If an early presidential election is held, the voting hours are likely to be extended by two hours until 8 p.m. Previously, after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye in March 2017, the voting hours for the early presidential election were also extended by two hours. Generally, presidential elections are held from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., but considering the special nature of an early election, the voting time may be extended by two hours.

Assuming the presidential election is held on June 3, public officials or local government heads running for president must resign by May 4. Those subject to candidacy restrictions, excluding members of the National Assembly, must resign at least 30 days before the election day (Election Act Article 53, Paragraph 2). Among them are Kim Dong-yeon, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, from the Democratic Party, and Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu, from the People Power Party.

Presidential candidates must complete registration over two days, from May 10 to 11. The official election campaign period begins the day after the candidate registration deadline, on May 12. From this day, official legal election campaigning is permitted.

The preparation of the voter list and the application for sending election notices to military personnel and others (within 5 days starting 28 days before the election) will take place from May 6 to 10. Accordingly, the distribution of booklet-type election notices to each household must be completed by May 20 at the latest. The overseas voting period is from May 20 to 25. If the presidential election is held on June 3, early voting will be scheduled for May 29 and 30.

Ruling and opposition parties likely to finalize primary candidates within 10 days after impeachment

Based on the early presidential election schedule of June 3, each party is expected to begin internal primaries in earnest from mid-month. Since official presidential candidates must complete registration two days before the election, by the 24th day prior to the election, each party must finalize their presidential candidate by no later than the 10th of next month.

If the Democratic Party conducts a national participation primary like in the 2017 presidential election, it must first complete the recruitment of the first round of electors as quickly as possible. The electors refer to a group of delegates who select candidates in an indirect election. According to the precedent, if candidate registration for the primary is accepted for two days starting 50 days before the election, on the 14th, the primary candidates can be confirmed on the 15th. From April 19 to 28, 45 days before the election, a 10-day ARS voting and delegate tour voting will be conducted targeting regional party members and the general public. If a candidate obtains a majority based on cumulative results, the Democratic Party will select the final presidential candidate without a runoff. Some speculate that unlike in 2017, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung might be endorsed directly.

If the party proceeds with the primary as planned, the key issue will be how to coordinate the detailed schedule based on negotiations over the rules among candidates. If agreement on favorable primary rules for each candidate is delayed, the final selection process may become more time-pressured. This could reduce the time available for official debates and for candidates to present their policies and visions. In the 19th presidential election, the Democratic Party had four candidates?Moon Jae-in, Lee Jae-myung, Ahn Hee-jung, and Choi Jung?who competed and held several official debates. Ahead of the 21st presidential election, Lee Jae-myung is considered the most likely Democratic candidate, while among the so-called new "Three Kims" (Kim Dong-yeon, Governor of Gyeonggi Province; Kim Boo-kyum, former Prime Minister; and Kim Kyung-soo, former Governor of South Gyeongsang Province), who are mentioned as non-Lee Jae-myung presidential candidates, one may challenge for the presidency.

The People Power Party's primary is also a focus of attention. It is expected that once the government finalizes the election schedule, the party will set the primary rules and accept preliminary candidate applications. Given the short time between President Yoon's impeachment and the election, there is talk within the party that they might follow the primary schedule of the Liberty Korea Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party) for the 19th presidential election held after former President Park's impeachment.

The primary is expected to be conducted much more compressed than the People Power Party's 20th presidential election primary held from July 12 to November 5, 2021. When former President Park's impeachment was upheld on March 10, 2017, the Liberty Korea Party registered preliminary candidates three days later on the 13th, held a vision meeting on the 17th, and conducted the first primary cut-off on the 18th. On the 19th, a podcast debate was held, followed by a second cut-off on the 20th, a media day and six debates during the main primary on the 21st, public opinion polls on the 29th and 30th, and the presidential candidate was nominated on the 31st, completing the primary in 18 days with rapid progress.

Regarding the primary rules, it is highly likely that the latest rules used in the People Power Party's 20th presidential election primary will be adopted. In the last primary where President Yoon was selected as the final candidate, the rules followed the 20th presidential election: the first primary had 20% of the vote from the elector group (responsible party members) and 80% from public opinion polls; the second primary had 30% elector group and 70% polls; and the main primary had 50% elector group and 50% polls. However, since the election will be held with the People Power Party members largely united around President Yoon's support base, there is likely to be calls to increase the proportion of the elector group. In the 19th presidential election primary, the Liberty Korea Party selected Hong Joon-pyo, Mayor of Daegu, as the candidate with 70% elector group and 30% polls in the first and second primaries, and 50% elector group and 50% polls in the main primary.

However, if the hardline supporters of the People Power Party demand the resignation of the emergency committee led by Kwon Young-se, it may be difficult to finalize the primary rules quickly. Previously, some conservative civic groups called for the resignation of the party leadership, including Chairman Kwon, who was lukewarm about street protests during President Yoon's impeachment phase. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court has decided to allow live broadcasts by broadcasters and public attendance during the impeachment ruling session of President Yoon. The Constitutional Court also allowed live broadcasts during former President Park's impeachment case.