"Better to Be Occupied Than to Die"... European Conscription Revival Opposed by Youth [AK Radio]

Conscription Essential to Counter Russia
Severe Conscientious Objection... Weak Security Awareness
Even Countries Maintaining Conscription Face Dilemmas

Germany's next Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced that he will consider reinstating conscription, sparking controversy across Europe. European countries have gradually abolished conscription since the early 1990s after the end of the Cold War, and currently only nine countries maintain conscription. As the war in Ukraine moves toward a ceasefire atmosphere and the United States signals it will no longer intervene in European defense, the need to strengthen self-defense capabilities is being raised. The significant military gap with Russia is cited as a major cause.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia ranks first with 5,889 nuclear warheads. The United States follows with 5,244, then China (410), France (290), and the United Kingdom (225). If the U.S. nuclear umbrella completely withdraws from Europe, Europe would have to rely solely on the nuclear weapons of France and the United Kingdom (a total of 515) to counter Russia's overwhelming nuclear power.

The gap is also clear in conventional forces. Even when combining all European armies, the total is about 1.47 million, roughly comparable to Russia's standing army of 1.5 million. However, the key issue is that Europe's military is merely a sum of forces from dozens of countries, making integrated operations difficult. Looking at the individual forces of major European military powers, France has 200,000 troops, the United Kingdom 180,000, and Germany between 140,000 and 160,000, with the combined total of these three countries similar to the entire South Korean military. In this situation, concerns are growing about whether effective responses would be possible if Russia were to invade other European countries following the Ukraine war.

Especially as the Trump administration in the U.S. mentioned the possibility of withdrawing from NATO, uncertainty about U.S. support in emergencies has increased, raising the necessity to augment forces through the reinstatement of conscription. However, the revival of conscription in Europe faces many practical difficulties. The strongest obstacle is the strong resistance from the younger generation.

On the 17th (local time), Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the likely next Chancellor of Germany, held a press conference. Photo by EPA and Yonhap News.

Recently, Ole Nymoen, a 27-year-old German podcaster and freelance journalist, published a book titled "Why Don't I Fight for My Homeland," sparking controversy across Europe. He caused a major stir by arguing that being occupied by foreign powers is better than dying, and expressed these views in an interview with the Financial Times (FT), triggering debates about the security awareness of European youth.

In Germany, among the approximately 18,000 men and women who enlisted in 2023, 25% left the military within six months of enlistment, and the number of conscientious objectors increased about 15 times to around 3,000 compared to 2021. Some critics argue that Europe, which was belligerent during World Wars I and II, has now become "weaker" due to a strong aversion to war itself. As a result, recruiting troops for the Ukraine peacekeeping force solely from Europe is expected to be difficult, with deployments likely limited to 15,000 to 20,000 personnel at most. It is also anticipated that a significant portion of these forces will be composed of mercenaries from Africa or Asia.

Another problem in European defense is internal conflicts among European countries. Particularly, T?rkiye, which is emerging as a key player in European security, demands EU membership in exchange for taking on a larger role in European security, intensifying conflicts between Western and Eastern European countries. T?rkiye has about 420,000 standing troops, the largest among NATO members except the U.S., comparable to the combined forces of France and Germany.

However, Balkan countries including Greece strongly oppose T?rkiye's EU membership due to historical grievances dating back to the Ottoman Turkish Empire, with some countries even threatening to leave the EU if T?rkiye joins. Additionally, skepticism arises over what stance T?rkiye would take in the event of an actual conflict with Russia, given the Erdogan government's pro-Russian tendencies and T?rkiye's refusal to participate in sanctions against Russia, instead acting as a mediator for ceasefire negotiations, especially if T?rkiye ends up constituting the majority of the Ukraine peacekeeping forces.

The headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels, Belgium. Photo by AFP and Yonhap News Agency

As these security concerns expand globally, even pacifist countries are considering reinstating conscription. Countries currently operating conscription are discussing extending military service periods and introducing conscription for women.

In particular, South Korea faces one of the most challenging security environments globally amid low birthrates and an aging population, making Europe's conscription debate not merely someone else's issue. However, there are opinions that careful consideration is needed regarding simply extending service periods or introducing female conscription to fill troop numbers.

The case of Israel offers important lessons. Investigations revealed that female soldiers stationed at the border before Hamas's surprise attack reported warning signs, but the military ignored them, worsening the situation. This suggests that efficient integration and management are more important than merely increasing troop numbers.

Various solutions to alleviate security concerns are expected to be explored worldwide in the future, and the South Korean government and political circles will need to closely monitor global trends and prepare appropriate countermeasures.