Min Hyungbae: "Shoddy Investigation, Distorting Public Opinion and Political Attack"

Forum on "Fairness in Political Opinion Polls and Reporting"
"Regulations on Publication Should Be Lifted, ARS Methods Must Be Banned"

On the 10th, a forum on "Fairness in Political Opinion Polls and Reporting," co-hosted by Democratic Party Representative Min Hyungbae, the International Institute for Scientific Investigation (PSI), and Seoul National University IPSAI, was held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building, Seminar Room 2. The event was attended by experts from polling organizations, media outlets, and academia. Provided by Representative Min Hyungbae's office

The forum on "Fairness in Political Opinion Polls and Reporting," organized by Democratic Party lawmaker Min Hyungbae (Gwangju Gwangsan-eul), was held on the 10th at the National Assembly Members' Office Building Seminar Room 2, co-hosted by the Public Survey Institute (PSI) and Seoul National University IPSAI. Major polling agencies such as Gallup Korea, media outlets, and academic experts attended the event in large numbers.

Jeon Youngil, Director of the Public Survey Institute and Director of the Seoul National University IPSAI Center, delivered a keynote presentation titled "Principles and Practice of Survey Science." He explained that the United States prohibits ARS (Automated Response System) polling methods by federal law. Jeon pointed out that ARS methods, which rely on automated machine responses, lack statistical representativeness in sample extraction and tend to yield relatively higher responses from the extremes, inevitably leading to significant errors in election polling. He also assessed that Korea's opinion polling and data-driven policy are about 30 years behind the U.S., and proposed alternatives such as state-led investment and systematic establishment for survey science, as well as higher education and utilization of experts in the field.

Lee Joonwoong, professor at the Department of Communication at Seoul National University, argued in his presentation "Scientific Election Polls and Fair Media Reporting" that to improve the credibility of political opinion polls in Korea, Article 108 of the Public Official Election Act should be revised to lift the regulation that prohibits the publication or citation of poll results for six days before elections. Professor Lee stated, "This regulation prevents both poll commissioners and agencies from having the incentive to conduct accurate, high-quality surveys," adding, "The U.S., U.K., and Northern European countries have no such regulations on the publication of opinion polls." He also called for a transition to probability sampling methods, the establishment of fair compensation systems for respondents, and, in the case of media organizations, the development of theoretical and methodological capabilities such as developing poll questions and participating in survey design.

In the subsequent discussion, Kim Choonseok, head of the Public Opinion Research Division at Korea Research and spokesperson for the Korea Research Association, criticized the unscientific nature of the ARS method and advocated for its ban in public opinion polling. Jung Hanwool, Director of the Korea People Research Institute, criticized the reality where opinion polls have become tools of propaganda and raised the need for effective regulation. Park Minkyu, professor at the Department of Statistics at Korea University, called for ongoing research and policy development to enhance the reliability of election opinion polls.

During the forum, lawmaker Min delivered a welcoming address, stating, "Shoddy political opinion polls have become a very dangerous force that distorts public sentiment and attacks politics," citing the "Myeong Taegyun Gate" as evidence.

Min further stated, "Fair opinion polls help form social consensus and provide proper direction for elections and policies, but distorted polls shake democracy and throw citizens into confusion. We will gather opinions from all sectors to prepare institutional improvements, such as regulating inaccurate ARS polling methods and establishing a National Survey Science Institute."