As discussions on ending the Ukraine war are expected to intensify, an expert report outlining post-war measures has drawn attention.
According to the New York Times (NYT) on the 9th (local time), the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), a think tank supported financially by the Swiss government, published a report last week containing concrete plans for peacekeeping activities in Ukraine.
In this 31-page report, GCSP proposed establishing a buffer zone at least 10 km wide along approximately 1,100 km of the frontline to suppress clashes between both sides. The plan includes a force of about 5,000 personnel composed of civilians and police patrolling along the ceasefire line, with an additional 10,000 troops deployed from third countries to ensure security.
The report explained that these activities would be operated under the mandate of international organizations such as the United Nations and would be separate in nature from other units serving as a 'tripwire' to secure deterrence against war.
GCSP also proposed that a joint committee composed of Russian and Ukrainian military officials negotiate prisoner releases, mine clearance, and civilian movement in cooperation with an international monitoring team. Furthermore, Thomas Greminger, GCSP Director, said that diplomatic policy experts from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States were involved in a personal capacity and likely shared related information with their respective governments before and after the discussions.
In fact, the report was shared in advance with relevant countries through confidential channels last month before its official publication. NYT reported that these channels were regular meetings held in Geneva among diplomatic policy experts from the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.
However, experts generally agree that even if a swift ceasefire is reached, conducting peacekeeping activities along a frontline five times the length of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating South and North Korea will not be an easy task.
Walter Kemp, a European security expert who drafted the report, said, "One of the largest ceasefire monitoring operations in history is approaching very quickly." Samuel Charap, a Russia expert at the U.S. think tank RAND Corporation, also predicted, "It will be an unprecedentedly difficult challenge."
In reality, the two countries signed a ceasefire agreement in 2015 shortly after Russia's forced annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, but it became ineffective due to the lack of means to punish violations.
Additionally, NYT pointed out that skepticism remains about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to agree to a ceasefire.
Janis Kluge, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, warned, "It is dangerous to be captivated by the illusion that a ceasefire is imminent," adding, "I do not believe Russia will agree to Ukraine maintaining its independence and sovereignty."
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