[MarketING] KOSPI Wavers Amid Fluctuating Tariffs

KOSPI's Weekly Forecasted Range: 2500-2650
Tariff Uncertainty Delays Market Recovery
Buying Opportunities May Arise Amid Volatility
Key U.S. Economic Indicators and Tariff Decisions This Week

As uncertainty over U.S. tariffs continues, the KOSPI's recovery above the 2600 level is being delayed. This week (March 10-14), attempts to regain the 2600 level are expected to continue amid tariff uncertainties. Since the domestic stock market is holding up better compared to the U.S. stock market, there is an opinion that it is necessary to approach with a buying perspective if volatility expands.

Last week, the KOSPI rose by 1.21%, while the KOSDAQ fell by 2.19%. Shin Seung-jin, a researcher at Samsung Securities, analyzed, "The U.S. stock market is showing signs of fatigue due to President Donald Trump's inconsistent tariff policies, which are increasing uncertainty about the economy. On the other hand, our market is showing a relatively firm trend because sectors sensitive to U.S. trade policies such as IT, secondary batteries, and automobiles have entered valuations that are difficult to fall further due to prolonged price weakness."

The tariff policy keeps wavering between imposition and withdrawal, increasing market fatigue. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, explained, "Last week, President Trump repeatedly imposed and withdrew tariffs on Mexico and Canada, causing uncertainty and leaving the market unable to find its footing. Tariff uncertainty is expected to repeat again in April, and the stock market is reflecting uncertainty about policy direction rather than cheering tariff exemptions."

Although tariff uncertainty continues, it has been somewhat priced in, so there is an opinion that it is necessary to respond with buying when volatility expands. Na Jung-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "Tariff policy uncertainty persists, but I maintain the view that Trump's tariff policy is ultimately for negotiation. Going forward, it is necessary to approach with a buying perspective when stock price volatility expands following the announcement of detailed reciprocal tariff items." NH Investment & Securities has set the expected KOSPI band for this week at 2500 to 2650.

The domestic stock market still has high price attractiveness, so if tariff uncertainty eases somewhat, a strong upward trend is expected. Researcher Shin said, "Compared to the weak dollar, the Korean won still remains in the mid-1400 won range, so from the perspective of foreign investors, the price attractiveness of the Korean stock market remains high. Since the downward revision of earnings estimates for Korean companies due to U.S. trade uncertainty is also in its final phase, if a small trigger for tariff policy changes emerges, the Korean market could show stronger performance than expected."

Key schedules for this week include the release of the U.S. February Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 12th and the U.S. February Producer Price Index (PPI) on the 13th. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March will be released on the 14th. From the 12th, U.S. government tariffs on steel and aluminum will be imposed.

Researcher Lee said, "There is a possibility that anxiety will flow in around the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on the 12th, but the volatility of the stock market, which was given a preventive shot last week, is expected to be limited." He added, "The U.S. CPI is scheduled to be announced on the 12th and the PPI on the 13th. The CPI is expected to fall to 2.9% from 3.0% the previous month, and the core CPI is also expected to slow to 3.2% from 3.3%. If inflation slows, concerns about stagflation, which have recently spread mainly in the U.S., will quickly subside and expectations for monetary policy will strengthen."