[Choi Junyoung's World+] The End and New Beginning of the Ukraine War

Exclusion of Ukraine and Major European Countries
Unilateral US-Russia Ceasefire Talks
Ukraine's NATO Membership Out of Reach
Withdrawal of US Troops from Europe Imminent
Poland and Others Exposed to Russian Threat
Facing the Prospect of Invasion and Chaos

The Russia-Ukraine war, which began on February 24, 2022, is entering a new phase. President Donald Trump, who had declared that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office, recently revealed through a phone call with President Vladimir Putin that he would engage in talks for a ceasefire. Trump's statement that negotiations on Ukraine's future would proceed immediately without preconditions for the talks or the participation of other European countries surprised Ukraine and Europe. Trump, who mentioned that he could meet President Putin directly in Saudi Arabia, the selected venue for the talks, has for now stepped back and dispatched a U.S. delegation to negotiate with Russia. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Middle East envoy Steven Witkoff are reported to discuss ceasefire terms with Russia in Saudi Arabia.

Europe and Ukraine are uneasy about President Trump's unilateral moves. If negotiations between the U.S. and Russia proceed without the participation of Ukraine and major European countries, conditions unfavorable to Ukraine could be imposed unilaterally. Ukraine has long hoped for a ceasefire that includes a return to the pre-2022 war borders, security guarantees including the deployment of peacekeeping forces from NATO member countries including the U.S., and ultimately Ukraine's accession to NATO.

However, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's remarks at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine's NATO accession is impossible and that restoring the pre-war borders is unrealistic have heightened concerns that the talks will proceed in a manner favorable to Russia without the involvement of Europe and Ukraine. Secretary Hegseth emphasized that after the ceasefire, the U.S. military and NATO deployments would not be allowed to enforce the peace agreement. While German or French troops may be dispatched to Ukraine, these would be independent actions by those countries unrelated to NATO. The U.S. stance revealed that even if European troops deployed to Ukraine clash with Russian forces, NATO's collective response principle as stipulated in its charter would not be applied.

Excluding Ukraine from NATO membership and the impossibility of returning to pre-war borders have been Russia's preconditions for starting ceasefire negotiations. Russia is pleased that its preconditions have been met and that tensions between the U.S. and European allies are creating a situation where its influence in Europe could expand. Russia is now focusing on whether it is possible to resolve the fundamental cause of the conflict, as emphasized by President Putin. Putin's position has been that the fundamental solution is Ukraine's incorporation into Russia's sphere of influence.

President Trump holds the view that continuing to support Ukraine without tangible benefits for the U.S. is unnecessary, and if support is desired, Ukraine must pay a price commensurate with the $500 billion the U.S. has provided so far. In response, President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed to Trump that Ukraine grant the U.S. mining rights to rare earth elements and other mineral resources extensively deposited in Ukraine, and in return, the U.S. would provide additional military support and security guarantees. Trump sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Kyiv to propose that the U.S. acquire 50% of the rare earth minerals, but Zelensky reportedly rejected the offer for the time being. This was because the U.S. demand only included compensation for past support and did not offer future assistance. Ukraine wants to secure broad security guarantees in exchange for resource provision, but the U.S. remains ambiguous on this matter.

President Trump clearly states that security for Ukraine and the European continent after the ceasefire is the responsibility of European countries. Recently, the U.S. has requested major European countries, including France, to propose weapons, peacekeeping forces, and other security measures they can provide to Ukraine after the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. The U.S. aims to confirm whether Europe is willing to pay any price to participate in the ceasefire negotiations and whether Europe has a genuine commitment to protect Ukraine after the ceasefire.

Europe recognizes that it must now prepare for war on its own in response to the change in the U.S. stance. According to Denmark's Defense Intelligence Service, Russia is assessed to be capable of launching attacks against neighboring countries about six months after a ceasefire. The problem is that Europe lacks confidence that it can unite to confront forces willing to risk full-scale war to achieve territorial expansion. Eastern European countries, including Poland, consider the Russian threat existential and spend about 5% of their GDP on defense, but Western European countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom do not recognize this threat and have not taken adequate measures. The withdrawal of 20,000 U.S. troops stationed in Europe is imminent, but discussions on how to handle this have not been properly conducted.

On August 14, 1941, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill signed the Atlantic Charter aboard the British warship Prince of Wales in the Atlantic, which included the principle that territorial changes must be based on the wishes of the peoples concerned. This principle, regarded as the foundation of the international order for over 80 years, is now being undermined. In a situation where changes by force are tolerated, major powers will openly pursue the expansion of their spheres of influence, and many countries will face invasion and chaos in the process. Although the order and rules once taken for granted are collapsing before our eyes, we have yet to fully realize it. The ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war will not be an end but the beginning of a new era.

Choi Jun-young, Legal Expert at Yulchon LLC (Global Law & Policy)