[Real Investment] Top 3 Promising Sectors Leading the US Stock Market This Year

From Hardware to Software...
The Shifting Center of Gravity in AI
The Dream of the 'First Buddy': Humanoids
"Planting the U.S. Flag on Mars"...
The Dawn of the Space Exploration Era

Last year, Nvidia, which led the artificial intelligence (AI) rally, is now facing concerns that it may lose its leading position this year. The 'DeepSeek shock' originating from China has sparked skepticism about hoarding expensive graphics processing units (GPUs), and the tariff bomb imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on China has further acted as a negative factor. The market is now desperate to find the next leader to replace Nvidia. Which sectors will produce the leading stocks this year?

From Hardware to Software... The Shifting Center of Gravity in AI

Last month, a Chinese startup's AI model, DeepSeek, shocked the global market. It was reported that the product, comparable to U.S.-representative AI models such as ChatGPT, Cloud, and LLaMA, was developed at about one-tenth the cost. Nvidia, whose stock price plunged 17% due to the emergence of this 'cost-effective (price-performance ratio) ultimate champion' that does not require expensive AI chips, is still struggling to recover its peak.

One person's crisis is another's opportunity. As the path to popularization opens, allowing low-cost, high-efficiency AI to spread explosively, the weight of the AI industry has begun to shift from AI chip companies to AI software companies. While Nvidia, the leading AI chip stock, saw its stock price fall 0.54% from the beginning of this year to the 10th of this month (local time), Palantir, the leading AI software stock, soared 54%, reflecting this industrial landscape change. In South Korea as well, with expectations of narrowing the gap with big tech companies, AI service providers Naver and Kakao saw their stock prices rise 12.62% and 16.28%, respectively, over the past month as of the 10th.

Lee Eun-taek, a researcher at KB Securities, analyzed, "Over time, investors will think that the core is not 'buying chips' but 'how to utilize them.' While there will be no significant underperformance (market return underperformance) for AI semiconductors (hardware AI) this year, they will lose their leading stock status and may face more difficulties next year."

Shim Ji-hyun, a senior researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., highlighted that President Trump has been enthusiastic about AI infrastructure investment, announcing the $500 billion (about 730 trillion KRW) joint venture 'Stargate' last month, and named Microsoft (MS) and Oracle as promising stocks. MS is expected to grow alongside OpenAI, in which it holds about a 49% stake through partnership. Oracle, part of the Stargate project and one of TikTok's server suppliers, is expected to benefit if President Trump allows TikTok's U.S. service to resume.

The Dream of the 'First Buddy': Humanoids

The next promising sector can also be glimpsed through the actions of Elon Musk, Tesla CEO and President Trump's 'First Buddy.' Musk unveiled the first prototype of the humanoid robot 'Optimus' in September 2022 and plans to produce 1,000 units by the end of this year and deploy them in industries starting next year. Reflecting this expectation, as of the 7th, domestic investors' holdings in Tesla stocks amount to about $21.8 billion, ranking first among all overseas stocks. This is nearly twice the $12 billion held in Nvidia, which ranks second.

Choi Won-seok, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., said, "With the rapid advancement of AI technology, the commercialization of robots is no longer a vague future but an imminent megatrend," and predicted, "The largest market for the service robot industry will be the United States." He diagnosed that if the U.S. faces labor shortages due to President Trump's illegal immigrant deportation policy, the adoption of service robots performing serving, delivery, and cleaning will accelerate. Choi selected Tesla and Serve Robotics, an outdoor delivery robot company spun off from Uber Technologies, as his top picks. Serve Robotics plans to deploy 2,000 delivery robots on the Uber Eats platform by the end of this year."

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the global humanoid robot market will grow from $1.5 billion in 2025 to $37.8 billion (about 55 trillion KRW) by 2035. Conscious of this growth potential in the robot industry, leading domestic conglomerates are rushing to invest. Samsung Electronics became the largest shareholder of Rainbow Robotics last December to develop multipurpose advanced robots and is pursuing a corporate merger. Under Vice Chairman Han Jong-hee, the Future Robot Promotion Group was also established. LG Electronics expanded its robot business by acquiring an additional 30% stake in Bear Robotics, a commercial autonomous robot company, last month. Hyundai Motor Group, which acquired Boston Dynamics in 2020, plans to deploy Atlas in its automobile factories in the second half of this year.

"Planting the U.S. Flag on Mars"... The Dawn of the Space Exploration Era

Growth in the space industry is also anticipated. President Trump said at last month's inauguration, "I will send American astronauts to Mars and plant the U.S. flag," lending support to Musk's dream of Mars colonization. SpaceX, the space company led by Musk, is pioneering private space exploration with its satellite communication service 'Starlink,' which has expanded to 118 countries within four years of service launch. According to Bloomberg, SpaceX's recent valuation is about $350 billion (approximately 514 trillion KRW). The exchange-traded fund (ETF) 'Destiny Tech 100,' which invests in SpaceX, has seen its stock price soar about 400% over the past six months.

Currently, the commercial launch vehicle market is dominated by SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Rocket Lab's Electron. Blue Origin, led by Amazon chairman Jeff Bezos, preparing to enter the medium launch vehicle market, and the joint venture ULA between Lockheed Martin and Boeing are also U.S. companies. Researcher Choi predicted, "Since launch vehicles cannot be recovered if the launch fails, the mission must be redone from the beginning. Until the launch success rate of countries outside the U.S. reaches about 95%, the U.S. will maintain its dominance in the commercial market."

He identified Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines as his top picks in the space sector. With expected increases in U.S. defense budgets for new technologies such as drones and hypersonic missiles, growth in the defense sector of space companies is anticipated. Intuitive Machines, whose half of the employees are former NASA staff, succeeded in the first private company lunar landing last year and secured additional orders for Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS). Rocket Lab is also regarded as a leader in the small satellite launch market. It is responsible for manufacturing NASA's Mars probe 'ESCAPADE,' scheduled for launch this year, making it a beneficiary of U.S. Mars exploration.