[Political Spotlight] Emerging Silent Power Players... Between Checks and Cooperation

With Lee Jae-myung's Approval Ratings Stagnant, Bi-Lee Faction Steps Up Activities
Raising Their Profile by Criticizing the One-Man System
Kim Dong-yeon's Close Associates Fill Key Positions
Kim Kyung-soo Rallies Pro-Moon Support, Kim Boo-kyum Advocates Inclusiveness

Since the stagnation of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, the dormant anti-Lee (Bi-Lee) faction's potential presidential candidates have been expanding their activities. They are raising their presence by unanimously criticizing the 'Lee Jae-myung one-man regime.' There is also a forecast that as the possibility of an early presidential election increases, the competition for leadership among Bi-Lee faction presidential hopefuls could intensify.

The political circles believe it is necessary to focus more on the 'intensity' of the statements made by the Democratic Party's Bi-Lee faction potential candidates rather than the content itself. This means that the strength of their remarks can help gauge their likelihood of running for president and the order of their candidacy. The three Kims (Kim Dong-yeon, governor of Gyeonggi Province; Kim Boo-kyum, former Prime Minister; and Kim Kyung-soo, former governor of South Gyeongsang Province) are representative Bi-Lee faction potential candidates mentioned in political circles. Former Chief of Staff to President Moon Jae-in, Lim Jong-seok, has also recently increased the frequency of his public remarks. Summarizing the recent intensity of their critical statements, the order of strength is Lim → former Governor Kim Kyung-soo → Governor Kim Dong-yeon → former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum.

Lim Jong-seok emphasizes that "Leader Lee cannot do everything well alone." This is interpreted as a message to keep the discussion about 'alternative figures' open. It suggests that for the sake of regime change, Lee may not be the only answer. On the previous day, Lim wrote on his Facebook, "If Leader Lee does not win the hearts of the majority of the people, he must have a do-or-die determination to accomplish regime change even if it means sacrificing himself on the altar." However, experts view Lim's chances of running for president as the lowest. Hong Hyun-sik, director of Hangil Research, said, "Lim is definitely part of the Bi-Lee faction but is closer to a boss role than a presidential candidate. To rise as a presidential candidate, the president must have strong public consensus on their popular leadership."

In terms of forming popular consensus, Governor Kim Dong-yeon is the strongest among the Bi-Lee faction potential candidates. The points where Governor Kim criticizes Leader Lee are also subjects of significant public debate. Recently, he appeared on the MBN YouTube channel and said, "It is certainly necessary to approach progressive values and philosophy pragmatically, but values and philosophy cannot be changed." This statement was made in response to Leader Lee's push for exceptions to the 52-hour workweek for the semiconductor industry, which sparked debates between business and labor sectors. Another notable point is that Bi-Lee faction figures are being appointed to key positions one after another. He has appointed Kim Hyun-gon, known as a close aide since his time at the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, as the head of the Gyeonggi Institute of Economy and Science. Additionally, Lee Yong-bin, former Democratic Party lawmaker, was appointed CEO of the Gyeonggi Welfare Foundation, and Yoo Jung-joo, also a former Democratic Party lawmaker, was appointed CEO of the Gyeonggi Cultural Foundation.

Former Governor Kim Kyung-soo recently applied to rejoin the Democratic Party and is attempting to rally the pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in) faction within the party. His critical remarks toward Lee Jae-myung have also intensified. Upon returning to Korea on December 6 last year, shortly after President Yoon Seok-youl's impeachment, he said, "If we can build a party that can lead South Korea together with Leader Lee, I will play whatever role I can in that process." A month later, during the Lunar New Year holiday on January 29, he directly told Leader Lee, "Apologize to those who left the party in disgrace." The biggest risk for former Governor Kim is that he is an election offender due to the 2019 Druking comment manipulation scandal. Some expect that as the 'legitimate heir of the pro-Moon faction,' he could play a strategic casting vote role for the Bi-Lee faction in the party's presidential primary.

Former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum is the most conciliatory among the Bi-Lee faction presidential hopefuls toward Leader Lee. He said, "The vitality of the Democratic Party lies in inclusiveness, diversity, and democracy," calling for Lee's inclusive policies. He also emphasized that "Leader Lee must fully accept criticism from former Governor Kim and former Chief of Staff Lim for the overall approval rating of the Democratic Party to rise." On the other hand, he voiced opposition to some of Lee's policies. He opposed the impeachment of Choi Sang-mok, acting Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance, citing concerns about undermining stability, and publicly criticized Lee's recent request for a constitutional review.

Meanwhile, Lee Nak-yeon, former Prime Minister and Democratic Party leader in 2020, will give a lecture titled "The 7th Republic Opened with the People" in Gwangju on the 10th. Lee, who has maintained a low profile since the April 10 general election, is expected to discuss pension reform in his speech. A close aide to Lee said in a phone interview, "I understand that some within the New Future Democratic Party are expressing opinions regarding an early presidential election." Experts predict that the second trial of Lee's violation of the Public Official Election Act will be a turning point for the Bi-Lee faction's movements to become full-fledged. If Lee is found guilty in the second trial, the Bi-Lee faction is likely to escalate the early election crisis narrative and actively consider the possibility of replacing the candidate.