Korea, Winter Wildfire Risk in 2100 to Increase by Up to 158%

"Korea cannot be an exception to the risk of wildfires due to climate change."

The National Institute of Forest Science predicted through climate change scenario research that by around 2100, the wildfire risk in Korea will increase by up to 158% compared to the late 20th century (1971-2000).

Graph showing the annual changes in the number of days and occurrences of wildfires from 1991 to 2024. Provided by the National Institute of Forest Science.

The prediction results were obtained through collaborative research on climate change scenarios by the National Institute of Forest Science, Chonnam National University, and Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology. This study evaluated wildfire risk using a wildfire weather index predicted by comprehensively analyzing meteorological factors such as precipitation, temperature, and wind speed.

The research team anticipated that when the temperature on the Korean Peninsula rises by 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius, the increase in the wildfire weather index during winter will be most pronounced. This raises the possibility that the wildfire risk period in spring will shift earlier to winter.

In fact, an analysis of wildfire statistics in Korea from 1981 to last year showed an increasing trend in both the annual number of wildfire days and wildfire occurrences. This indicates that the wildfire risk period is gradually expanding throughout the year.

In this regard, Professor Jeong Ji-hoon of Sejong University explained, "The background for the increase in wildfire risk due to climate change lies in extreme situations where a large amount of precipitation is concentrated in specific periods, while dryness is maintained during other periods."

Researcher Ahn Su-jeong of the Wildfire Research Division at the National Institute of Forest Science said, "We will continue research on changes in wildfire risk due to climate change through academic and interdepartmental collaboration," adding, "The Institute plans to forecast wildfire risk in advance through the national wildfire risk forecasting system and strengthen public awareness campaigns for wildfire prevention."