Shift in Stance on Difficulty of Determining Virus Origin
"Low Confidence... Investigation to Continue"
Following the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also assessed that it is more likely that the COVID-19 virus leaked from a laboratory in China.
On the 25th (local time), according to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), CNN, and others, a CIA spokesperson stated in a press release that "it is more likely that the COVID-19 virus did not occur naturally but originated from material accidentally leaked from a Chinese laboratory."
However, the CIA said, "The confidence level of this assessment is still low," and judged that "both the natural origin theory and the lab leak theory remain possible scenarios." They added that they will continue to investigate whether there is new information that could change the judgment that the lab leak possibility is higher.
Earlier, former President Joe Biden ordered U.S. intelligence agencies in 2021 to investigate the origin of the COVID-19 virus. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) and four intelligence agencies concluded that the natural origin theory, which states the virus was transmitted from wild animals to humans, was plausible, but the FBI was the only agency to support the 'lab leak theory.'
At that time, the CIA took a cautious stance, stating there was insufficient information to assess the virus's origin. However, former CIA Director William Burns instructed to take a position on either side rather than agnosticism, and although with a caveat of low confidence, this time they judged that the lab leak possibility is higher.
The origin of COVID-19 has been a highly contentious issue. The Chinese government did not properly cooperate with the international community's investigation, making it difficult to clarify the exact cause.
Initially, the natural origin theory, which suggested the virus spread from animals such as civet cats and bats, was dominant, but no host animal was found. Among experts, concerns arose that the material control measures at the Wuhan laboratory in China were inadequate.
In the U.S., the debate over the origin of COVID-19 also took a partisan turn. During his first term, President Donald Trump actively supported the lab leak theory, referring to COVID-19 as the 'China virus,' while the Democratic side largely held the view that the virus was transmitted from animals to humans.
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