[Empathy Issue] Yoon Impeachment Situation... Gwangju and Jeonnam's 'Local Election Clock' Speeds Up

With the Possibility of an Early Presidential Election, Candidates Weigh Pros and Cons
Kang Gijung Prepares for Re-election as Gwangju Mayor, While Rivals Emerge
Moon In, Head of Buk-gu District, Seen as a Strong Contender for Next Mayor
Moon Builds His Standing by Opposing Key Policies of Mayor Kang
Kim Youngrok Maintains Strong Approval as South Jeolla Governor, Eyes Third Term
Lee Gaeho, Ju Cheolhyeon, and Others Mentioned, but Differ in Political Weight

Voting booth CG. Photo by Yonhap News

With the arrest of President Yoon Suk-yeol and the possibility of a "Cherry Blossom Presidential Election" being discussed, attention is also growing toward the 2026 local elections, which are now just about a year and five months away.

In particular, as speculation continues over the electability of Lee Jae-myung, the prominent opposition presidential candidate and leader of the Democratic Party, calculations about the advantages and disadvantages for potential candidates in the Gwangju and Jeonnam mayoral and gubernatorial races after the presidential election are also intensifying. This is because, given the local characteristic that winning the party primary is virtually equivalent to winning the election, the influence of the president is expected to have a significant impact on the upcoming local elections as well.

◇ Correlation between Lee Jae-myung’s Rise and Local Figures

With President Yoon being arrested last December on charges such as declaring martial law and insurrection, the theory of a "presidential election in April or May" is gaining traction. Considering the upcoming schedule for President Yoon’s defense, the Constitutional Court’s deliberations, and the announcement of the impeachment trial results, the general consensus in political circles is that the presidential election will be held as early as this April or by June at the latest.

Currently, although there are some names being mentioned within the ruling party, there is no clear frontrunner for the presidency. On the other hand, the position of Lee Jae-myung in the opposition is becoming more prominent. Despite judicial risks, he continues to top various opinion polls by a wide margin, which is evidence of his dominance.

As the clock for an early presidential election starts ticking, the timeline for the 9th nationwide local elections, scheduled for June 2026, is also accelerating. Against this backdrop, there is active analysis and speculation about the prospects of various candidates considering a run in the Gwangju and Jeonnam mayoral and gubernatorial races, in relation to Lee Jae-myung’s influence.

Candidates mentioned for Gwangju mayor (from left) are Kang Kijeong, mayor of Gwangju; Moon In, head of Gwangju Buk-gu District Office; Min Hyungbae, member of the National Assembly; Lee Byunghun, former member of the National Assembly; and Lee Hyungseok, former member of the National Assembly. (in alphabetical order)

◇ Three-Way Race Expected for Gwangju Mayor

The Gwangju mayoral race is expected to be a three-way contest among the current mayor Kang Gi-jung, Moon In, the head of Buk-gu District, and National Assembly member Min Hyung-bae.

Mayor Kang, seeking re-election, has demonstrated strong leadership, leaving his mark across all sectors?social, cultural, and welfare?by pushing for a trio of complex shopping mall projects, implementing a city-wide poster initiative, successfully advancing private park development projects, and establishing the Gwangju-style integrated care system. However, his alignment with the Jeong Sye-kyun faction and his differing political stance from Lee Jae-myung are seen as weaknesses.

Although Kang has a solid position within the party thanks to his close relationship with Kim Min-seok, a top Democratic Party official, and his long experience in central politics, the subtle discord with Lee Jae-myung is expected to be a significant burden in the upcoming local elections.

Additionally, negative public opinion toward Kang is widespread due to internal discord within city hall attributed to the "Daedong High School Line" frame, conflicts arising from the process of establishing a resource recovery facility, and issues with personnel appointments seen as autocratic.

These weaknesses of Mayor Kang serve to elevate the profile of Moon In, the head of Buk-gu District, who is classified as a staunch Lee Jae-myung ally within the Democratic Party. Moon’s strength lies in his over 30 years of administrative experience, having passed the civil service exam. As a two-term Buk-gu District head, he is known for his principled stance against pushing through reckless policies.

However, he is not always quiet in his administration. He was the first among Gwangju’s autonomous districts to push for the issuance of a local currency, taking a stand against the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, which was negative about such policies. There is a well-known anecdote about Lee Jae-myung showing considerable interest in Moon’s actions.

Some analysts say the subtle rivalry between Moon and Kang has already begun. Last year, Moon openly opposed Kang during the selection process for an incinerator site, refusing to submit a candidate site and effectively throwing his hat into the ring.

Recently, it was reported that the Buk-gu District Office commissioned Chonnam National University to conduct a separate traffic impact assessment for the "The Hyundai Gwangju" and other complex shopping mall projects, expressing doubts about the traffic assessment approved by the city. This signals his intention not to simply follow the city’s lead. However, outside of Buk-gu, Moon’s name recognition remains relatively low, which is a challenge he must overcome.

Min Hyung-bae, considered an original member of the Lee Jae-myung faction, is also emerging as a strong contender to block Kang’s re-election. Min was once regarded as a reliable ally of Lee Jae-myung. In January 2021, he made waves by publicly supporting Lee over Lee Nak-yon, another politician from the Honam region, as the party leader candidate. Since then, he has continued to raise his profile as a leading pro-Lee figure.

Although his position was shaken recently due to his involvement in the so-called "golf course incident," he is reportedly making thorough preparations for the mayoral race by reorganizing his campaign team.

Other potential candidates for the Gwangju mayoral race include former lawmakers Lee Byung-hoon and Lee Hyung-seok.

Candidates for Jeonnam Province Governor (from left) Kim Youngrok, former Jeonnam Province Governor; Noh Kwangyu, Suncheon Mayor; Seo Samsuk, Assemblyman; Shin Junghun, Assemblyman; Lee Gaeho, Assemblyman; Joo Cheolhyun, Assemblyman. (in alphabetical order)

◇ Kim Young-rok’s Bid for a Third Term...Challengers in Pursuit

Although Kim Young-rok, governor of South Jeolla Province, appears relaxed in his bid for a third term, local sentiment suggests that the reality is more complicated. Since first being elected in June 2018, Kim has enjoyed overwhelming support from residents, rarely losing the top spot in job approval ratings. This made him the only Democratic Party metropolitan governor to win re-election in the last election.

However, there are doubts about his ability to form a political alliance with Lee Jae-myung, as Kim is considered part of the Moon Jae-in faction. Given that Lee places great importance on Jeonnam, the political heart of Honam, it is expected that he will seek an ally who can align with his own political trajectory. Some even say that if Lee wins the presidency, Kim may not even survive the party primary.

This presents an opportunity for Ju Cheol-hyeon, a key Lee Jae-myung ally and current head of the Democratic Party’s Jeonnam provincial chapter (Yeosu City Gap), to target Kim. The recent heated debate between Ju and Kim over the establishment of a memorial park following the Jeju Air disaster is seen as Ju’s unofficial declaration of candidacy for the upcoming local elections.

Additionally, Democratic Party lawmaker Lee Gae-ho (Damyang, Hampyeong, Yeonggwang, Jangseong) has also expressed a strong intention to run for governor. A four-term lawmaker, Lee’s strength is his long-established political base in the region. However, he was criticized for "poor constituency management" after nearly losing to the Cho Kuk Innovation Party in the recent Yeonggwang County by-election.

Other potential candidates for the next South Jeolla governor include lawmakers Seo Sam-seok (Yeongam, Muan, Shinan), Shin Jung-hoon (Naju, Hwasun), and Noh Gwan-gyu, mayor of Suncheon.

A local political source said, "With President Yoon Suk-yeol’s arrest, the timeline for the 2026 local elections has also accelerated. It is important to keep an eye on the recent moves of Mayor Kang Gi-jung and Governor Kim Young-rok. Since each is in a different position, it will be interesting to see what political solutions they come up with."