From Impeachment to Early Election... Lunar New Year Tables Heat Up with Magma-Like Public Sentiment

Impeachment and Presidential Election Dominate Lunar New Year Table Talk
Political Circles Closely Watch the Direction of Holiday Public Sentiment

As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, the political sphere is closely monitoring the direction of public sentiment, particularly as it is discussed in local gathering places known as "Sarangbang." The Lunar New Year holiday is a time when many people across the country travel to visit their hometowns and relatives. Among various topics such as prices, employment, and health, politics is always a central subject of conversation. This year, with a range of political issues at play, it appears that political discussions in these Sarangbang gatherings will be more heated than ever.

In particular, with President Yoon Suk-yeol facing impeachment proceedings following the December 3 Martial Law Incident, and the possibility of an early presidential election becoming a reality, the political landscape is undergoing significant upheaval. This is expected to create a different atmosphere from previous holidays, where key concerns centered on everyday issues such as prices and exchange rates.

On the 4th, ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, Kyungdong Market in Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, is bustling with citizens shopping for goods. Photo by Dongju Yoon

The fate of President Yoon is expected to be the most talked-about issue during this Lunar New Year holiday. President Yoon declared martial law on the night of December 3 last year and was subsequently impeached by the National Assembly on the 14th of the same month. He is currently detained on charges of leading an insurrection and is undergoing an impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) and National Assembly hearings are producing a flood of evidence related to the insurrection charges. While President Yoon is appearing at the Constitutional Court to present his defense, it remains to be seen whether his explanations will be convincing to the justices. The Constitutional Court is expected to render its impeachment verdict as early as late February or early March.

The outcome of the second trial related to Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and his alleged violation of the Public Official Election Act is also drawing attention. The second trial, which began on the 23rd, has become a variable in the upcoming presidential race. Last November, Lee was sentenced in the first trial to one year in prison with a two-year suspended sentence for violating election law. If Lee receives a final sentence of a fine of 1 million won or more, he will not only lose his parliamentary seat but also be ineligible to run for president. As the appellate court is expected to deliver its ruling as early as the end of March, there is heightened interest in the outcome. Even if Lee receives a fine of 1 million won or more in the second trial, he could technically still run in an early presidential election unless the Supreme Court upholds the verdict, but he would face significant political risks in doing so.

In Sarangbang gatherings this holiday, discussions are expected to focus on the changing political landscape and evaluations of potential early presidential election candidates. On the ruling party side, former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min and Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo have expressed their intentions to run for president, while Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, and former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon are being mentioned as potential candidates regardless of their personal intentions. On the opposition side, Lee Jae-myung, Gyeonggi Governor Kim Dong-yeon, former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, former Presidential Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok, and former South Gyeongsang Governor Kim Kyung-soo are being highlighted as presidential hopefuls.

Political commentator Park Sang-byeong stated, "This holiday is unusually long, and with the impeachment trial and early presidential election issues overlapping, there will be more political conversations than ever before," adding, "With the holiday coming just before a possible early presidential election, public sentiment during the Lunar New Year could determine the direction of public opinion."

On the other hand, some predict that public sentiment may not be clearly expressed even after the holiday. Since both the impeachment trial and Lee's second trial are still ongoing, it is expected that the centrist bloc will continue to take a wait-and-see approach. Choi Jin, head of the Institute for Presidential Leadership, analyzed, "Right now, public sentiment is bubbling beneath the surface like magma," and predicted, "Even after the holiday, people will continue to watch the situation, and public sentiment will erupt at a specific moment, such as during the election."