People Power Party 46.5% vs Democratic Party 39.0%... 'The Power of Shouting Conservatives?' [Polpol News]

Realmeter Poll
Regime Continuation Theory 48.6% vs. Regime Change Theory 46.2%

After the declaration of martial law and the impeachment of President Yoon Seok-yeol leading to his suspension from office, the ruling party, the People Power Party, surpassed the Democratic Party in approval ratings beyond the margin of error. Although within the margin of error, the theory of regime continuation led the theory of regime change.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter (commissioned by Energy Economy Newspaper, conducted over two days from the 16th to the 17th, surveying 1,004 voters aged 18 and over nationwide using 97% wireless and 3% wired automated response methods, with a response rate of 7.8% and a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), the People Power Party's approval rating rose by 5.7 percentage points from the previous week to 46.5%. The Democratic Party's approval rating fell by 3.2 percentage points to 39.0%.

Realmeter stated, "While the People Power Party's approval rating has risen for five consecutive weeks, the Democratic Party's rating continues to decline," adding, "For the first time in half a year since the third week of July last year, the People Power Party has held a lead over the Democratic Party beyond the margin of error." The People Power Party's approval rating rose to the mid-40% range for the first time in 11 months, while the Democratic Party fell below the 40% mark for the first time in five months.

The rise in the ruling party's approval rating amid President Yoon's impeachment and detention by the National Assembly is being regarded as a "surprise" in political circles. Experts analyzing this suggest that there is a consolidation phenomenon among conservative supporters in the polls. Unlike the "shy conservatives" who concealed their support during the past impeachment period, this is described as a "shouting conservative" phenomenon where they actively express their opinions. Additionally, there is analysis that fatigue with the Democratic Party's aggressive policy stance also played a role.

Kim Bong-shin, Vice President of Metavoice, analyzed, "During the transition from the martial law phase to the impeachment phase and then to the internal investigation phase, there seemed to be growing backlash among conservatives, which had the effect of consolidating them," adding, "Supporters who backed the impeachment appear to be less responsive in polls as they see the situation resolving." He noted that the opposition-led political response, including the Democratic Party, provoked backlash rather than persuading the conservative camp. Kim added, "Regardless of political resolutions such as President Yoon's impeachment, anger among conservative-leaning individuals may continue to grow."

With the Lunar New Year approaching, this week's polls are expected to be significant. Kim said, "On one hand, the conservative camp's opinion may be fractured due to the extreme conservative protesters' intrusion into the Western District Court, but on the other hand, sympathy for President Yoon's detention may also be highlighted, so it will be important to observe what impact this will have."

The People's Innovation Party recorded 4.2%, and the Reform New Party 1.9%.

Regarding the next presidential election, the theory of regime continuation led the theory of regime change within the margin of error. The theory that the People Power Party should hold the next administration rose by 7.4 percentage points to 48.6%, while the theory that the opposition should take power fell by 6.7 percentage points to 46.2%. Realmeter explained, "In the fourth week of December (last year), the theory of regime change was nearly twice as dominant as the theory of regime continuation, but since then the gap has narrowed, leading to a closely contested dynamic between the regime continuation and regime change frames."

For more details on the poll, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.