[Trump Again] The First 100 Days of Inauguration Are Crucial... Both Parties Must Unite to Reduce Political Turmoil

Expert Advice on South Korea’s Diplomatic Response
President Yoon Suk-yeol Suspended from Duty
Repetition of the Situation from Trump’s First Term
Clear Limitations of the ‘Acting of an Acting’ System
Eliminating Political Uncertainty Is the Top Priority

As President Yoon Suk-yeol faces judgment over the December 3 emergency martial law situation, South Korea has entered the launch of the second Trump administration in the United States under the transitional government system led by Acting President Choi Sang-mok. Coincidentally, this is a repetition of the vicious cycle that occurred in January 2017 when former President Park Geun-hye was suspended from office as Trump’s first term began. Experts have urged that, given the worst-case scenario of President Yoon’s suspension at a time when diplomacy with the U.S. is most urgent, the ruling and opposition parties must align their direction for the national interest in economic and diplomatic fields.

Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies’ Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, said, "Unlike the first term, which employed veterans from Washington’s political circles, the second term is expected to pursue bold policies centered on loyal personnel. It is important to establish related personnel network channels and create a platform where trusted individuals can play their roles."

Fully Mobilizing the Republican Personnel Network Channels

In Trump’s second term, protectionism will expand, manufacturing will be emphasized, and the stance to contain China will be further strengthened, increasing uncertainty in the external economic environment. Early in the term, executive orders related to tariffs and the deportation of illegal immigrants are anticipated. While expectations for domestic demand stimulation through tax cuts and deregulation are rising, negative shocks such as inflationary pressures may also increase financial market volatility.

Yoon In-gu, director of the International Finance Center, said, "Comparing Trump’s first and second terms from the perspective of financial market risk premiums, it is currently difficult for investors to take on additional risks in stocks or bonds. To stabilize South Korea’s stock and foreign exchange markets, the economic team must act as one team so that foreign investors can have a vision and invest in the domestic market."

Experts unanimously agreed that removing South Korea’s political uncertainty as soon as possible is the top priority, especially from diplomatic and economic perspectives. Research fellow Yang emphasized, "In a situation where a partner who can bring benefits to both economic and security sides is desperately needed amid North Korean nuclear deterrence, peace on the Korean Peninsula, and supply chain crises, establishing leadership is more urgent than anything else. The ruling and opposition parties must show a unified direction to minimize political uncertainty."

Acting President and Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, who is also the Minister of Economy and Finance, is holding a Cabinet meeting at the Government Seoul Office Building on the 14th. Photo by Yonhap News

Acting President and Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, who also serves as Minister of Strategy and Finance, is actively responding by holding weekly meetings on external economic issues in preparation for the launch of the new Trump administration. However, evaluations point out clear limitations under the 'acting of an acting' system. Acting President Choi himself is relatively cautious in exercising the president’s inherent powers and must also consider the opposition party’s stance, inevitably facing constraints in appointing U.S. counterparts or conducting diplomatic activities with President Trump. Especially since President-elect Trump is known for valuing personal relationships in international diplomacy, it is difficult to predict to what extent he will recognize Acting President Choi as a partner.

Kim Heung-gyu, professor of political science and diplomacy at Ajou University and director of the U.S.-China Policy Research Institute, explained, "When President Trump takes office, he will first organize diplomatic policies and relationships with neighboring countries such as South Korea, China, and Japan, so the ‘first 100 days’ are the most important."

Acting President Choi Should Reduce Political Turmoil and Focus on Administrative Duties

In the U.S., presidents entering their second term usually rush to build a 'legacy' early in their term to avoid lame-duck status. This also poses a risk for South Korea. Professor Min Jung-hoon of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said, "President-elect Trump showed a very rapid approach to government appointments to achieve results. South Korea must respond well to this, but the absence of a control tower currently limits decisions involving political responsibility, such as large-scale investments."

The ongoing impeachment trial of President Yoon at the Constitutional Court is also a burden. President Yoon has focused on trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, including the Camp David agreement during his term. However, depending on the outcome of the impeachment trial and early presidential election, South Korea’s diplomatic and security policies may also change. There is even a possibility that the existing China policy could be altered.

Nonetheless, experts advise that since the acting president system is an unchangeable constant, efforts should first focus on reducing political turmoil. Professor Min said, "Normal diplomacy can only be possible after the impeachment crisis is resolved, so Acting President Choi should concentrate on managing and supporting diplomatic relations with major powers." Professor Kim added, "For Acting President Choi, it is most important to strive for domestic cabinet stability amid significant political turmoil."