Significant Trade Risks Following the Launch of the New U.S. Administration
Minimizing Negative Impacts from Domestic Political Instability
Establishing Monitoring System Amid Oversupply Concerns
Jung In-kyo, Head of the Trade Negotiation Headquarters at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, stated on the 7th, "We cautiously expect this year's export value to exceed 700 billion dollars."
On the same day, Jung made this remark during a briefing at the Government Complex Sejong regarding the '2024 Export and Foreign Investment Performance and 2025 Outlook.' According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the export value for 2024 reached 683.8 billion dollars, marking the highest record in two years. The trade balance also recorded a surplus of 51.8 billion dollars.
Jin In-gyo, Head of Trade Negotiations at the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, is giving a briefing on the '2024 Export and Foreign Investment Performance and 2025 Outlook' at the Government Sejong Complex on the 7th.
Jung evaluated, "Last year's export performance was not only good in numbers but also very strong in content. Most of the world's major export markets, including the United States and China, showed growth, and among the 15 major items, 8 items recorded significantly better results compared to the past."
He forecasted that the export growth trend would continue this year as well. He said, "Although the export growth rate will slow down compared to last year, it is expected to maintain an increase of about 1.5%. Last year, Korea ranked 6th in global exports, and this year, achieving 5th place is also possible."
However, he expressed concerns that factors such as the inauguration of the second term of the Donald Trump U.S. administration could pose risks to Korea's export growth. Jung said, "Various trade issues may arise from the new U.S. administration, which will take office in two weeks. Also, oversupply originating from China could negatively affect Korean exports."
In response, Jung stated his commitment to maintaining a stable trade environment. He explained, "Not only the Trade Negotiation Headquarters but everyone must strive to keep the trade environment stable. We will establish a monitoring system to periodically evaluate the items experiencing oversupply and the intensity of such oversupply to respond accordingly."
Foreign investment is also expected to continue its upward trend this year. Foreign direct investment in 2024 is projected to reach 34.57 billion dollars based on reported figures, a 5.7% increase from the previous year, setting a new record. Jung said, "When I met with CEOs of foreign-invested companies last year, they evaluated Korea as having a solid manufacturing base, an excellent network of free trade agreements (FTAs), and a stable supply chain system. These advantages remain valid this year."
Jung assessed that domestic political instability, such as martial law and presidential impeachment, has not yet negatively impacted Korean exports and foreign investment. He said, "Since exports and trade are conducted 2 to 3 months in advance, we have not yet confirmed any negative effects. If there are negative impacts, we will do our best to minimize them."
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