Supply of Russian natural gas through the pipeline passing Ukraine will end on the 31st (local time). Gas supply to European Union (EU) member countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, and Moldova will be directly affected.
On the day, an EU Commission spokesperson stated, "We are prepared to cope with the transport suspension," adding, "The impact of the termination of gas transportation through Ukraine on the EU's energy supply security is limited."
However, pro-Russian member states Hungary and Slovakia are strongly opposing the move. There are also expectations that gas prices in Hungary and Slovakia could rise immediately.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico sent a protest letter to the Commission on the 29th, arguing, "Implicit acceptance of Zelensky's (President of Ukraine) unilateral decision to block Russian gas is wrong and irrational. It will escalate tensions and lead to corresponding measures."
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb?n, who is friendly with Russia, proposed a clever plan to label the gas as 'Hungarian' rather than Russian once the gas contract is signed, since it would then be 'owned by Hungary,' but Ukraine rejected this.
Some analysts suggest that the impact of the pipeline suspension may not be as significant as expected.
Aura Sabadus, a researcher at raw material market analysis firm ICIS, analyzed, "The gas reserves of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary are currently at 67%, 76%, and 69%, respectively, so (for now) it should be fine," adding, "Demand also does not seem very high, and weather forecasts are within seasonal averages." She also pointed out that the opposition from Hungary and Slovakia ultimately stems from business issues, as energy companies seek profits by securing cheap Russian gas.
However, since energy is a practical issue, internal conflicts within the EU surrounding this are expected to intensify further.
Dan Jørgensen, the new EU Commissioner for Energy, is expected to propose plans to member states to further reduce dependence on Russia as early as the beginning of next year, but Hungary and Slovakia may attempt to block this.
Prime Minister Fico, who unusually visited Russia as an EU leader to resolve the gas supply issue, also warned of a de facto 'retaliation measure' by cutting off electricity supply to Ukraine.
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