South Korea's Economy to Rise One Rank to 12th Largest Next Year

South Korea's economic size is projected to rise one rank from 13th in the world this year to 12th next year.

The UK think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) estimated South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) at $1.862 trillion (approximately 2,700 trillion won) this year and $1.903 trillion (approximately 2,800 trillion won) next year in its "World Economic League Table 2025" report released on the 26th (local time), providing this analysis.

South Korea's GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.5% this year, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)'s forecast of 2.3% earlier this month. However, CEBR projects that from next year through 2029, the South Korean economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1%, showing some slowdown. It is predicted to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0% over the following decade.

South Korea's global economic ranking is expected to rise to 12th starting next year and maintain that position until 2039. In terms of GDP per capita, South Korea is estimated to rank 32nd worldwide this year with $35,971 (approximately 53 million won). CEBR forecasts that South Korea's GDP per capita will surpass $40,000 between 2025 and 2029, reaching $44,893 in 2029, $55,715 in 2034, and $67,833 in 2039.

Additionally, CEBR predicts that the United States and China will maintain their positions as the world's first and second largest economies until 2039. However, there may be changes in the rankings for 3rd to 5th place. Japan, estimated to be the 4th largest economy this year following Germany, is expected to be overtaken by India next year. The emerging economic powerhouse India is predicted to catch up with Germany around 2029 and firmly hold the 3rd position for the following decade.

Japan, overtaken by Germany and India, is also expected to experience a decline in GDP per capita. Japan's GDP per capita this year is projected at $32,428, lower than last year's $33,899, ranking 38th globally?six places below South Korea. Although a gradual recovery is expected from next year, Japan's ranking is anticipated to fall to 43rd worldwide by 2039.