Bird Flock Collision? Missile Shootdown? ... Cause of Azerbaijan Passenger Plane Crash

Multiple Holes Found on Tail Section of Wreckage
Some Experts Suggest "Possible Missile Attack"

Questions are being raised about the cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas, which resulted in dozens of casualties. In particular, experts have suggested the possibility of a shootdown after it was revealed that there are several holes in the tail section of the crashed aircraft.

On the 25th (local time), major foreign media reported that Kazakhstan's transportation incident prosecutor collected the plane's black box at the crash site. The Azerbaijani prosecution also dispatched an investigation team led by the deputy prosecutor to the scene to investigate the accident.

Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2 8243, carrying 67 people including 5 crew members, suddenly changed its flight path for unknown reasons while en route from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny in the Chechen Republic, and crashed near Aktau in western Kazakhstan. Among those on board, 38 died, and 29 survived, including 3 children.

Wreckage of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane that crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on the 25th (local time). Photo by EPA Yonhap News

Immediately after the accident, a bird strike was suggested as the cause. This was based on preliminary information released by a Russian civil aviation monitoring company, which explained that "an emergency occurred due to a bird strike, causing the pilot to change course." Azerbaijan Airlines initially issued this explanation but soon retracted it. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated at a press conference, "It is too early to conclude that a bird strike was the cause," adding, "According to the information received, the aircraft changed its route due to bad weather."

Some foreign media pointed out that if an aircraft experiences a bird strike, it is common to make an emergency landing in a nearby field, so attributing the accident to a bird strike does not explain why the plane headed east across the Caspian Sea toward Aktau. For this reason, some have suggested the possibility that the Russian military mistook the passenger plane for a Ukrainian drone and attacked it. The crash site is in an area where Russian air defense systems have been active in recent weeks in response to Ukrainian drones. Notably, there are several holes in the tail section of the aircraft, which some aviation experts claim are consistent with missile attacks or damage caused by air defense systems engaging the target.

Matt Bory, Chief Information Officer of aviation security company Osprey Flight Solutions, told The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), "Judging from photos of the wreckage, the aircraft appears to have been hit by anti-aircraft fire," and added, "The aircraft's movements shown in the crash footage do not match those typical of a bird strike." The Associated Press (AP) cited the flight tracking site Flightradar24, reporting that the aircraft experienced severe GPS signal jamming. The outlet also noted that Russia has previously been criticized for jamming GPS transmissions over wide areas.

The Azerbaijani Prosecutor General stated regarding the cause of the accident, "At this point, no conclusions can be drawn," adding, "We are reviewing all possible scenarios, and experts are conducting the necessary analyses."