Next Year, Nationwide Private Apartment Sales Fall Below 150,000 Units... Lowest Since 2000

Real Estate R114 Survey on Next Year's Pre-sale Volume of 25 Construction Companies

Lower Than 2010, the Year with the Lowest Pre-sale Volume Since 2000

Decrease in Pre-sale Volume Leads to Reduced Move-in Volume, Intensifying Supply Shortage in Real Estate Market

When crossing the Banpo Bridge in Seoul, you can see new apartments, old apartments, and apartments under construction all at once in the Sinbanpo area. The new apartments on the left are Acro Riverview Sinbanpo, the low old apartments on the right are Sinbanpo 2nd Complex, and the apartments under construction in the back are the Maple Xi construction site. Photo by Younghan Heo younghan@

The number of private apartment units scheduled for sale next year by major construction companies is expected to fall short of 150,000 units. Even when adding approximately 11,000 units not yet finalized in the sales plans and thus excluded from the statistics, the total is still less than 160,000 units. This marks the lowest level since 2000, making a market shock due to the apartment supply cliff inevitable.

On the 26th, Real Estate R114 conducted a full survey of next year's sales volume from 25 major construction companies and found that a total of 146,130 units (based on private apartment sales, including rentals) are scheduled for sale across 158 projects nationwide. This figure is 26,000 units lower than the previous lowest sales volume since 2000, recorded in 2010 (172,670 units).

Since 2000, the annual sales volume has typically exceeded 200,000 units, except for 2010 and 2023 (185,913 units). Looking at the period since 2016, the average annual sales volume reached 268,601 units.

Considering that actual sales performance often falls short of initial sales plans, the actual number of units sold by construction companies next year is likely to be even lower than this survey suggests. However, the next year's private apartment sales volume does not include some units (about 11,000) from GS Construction, Lotte Construction, and HDC Hyundai Development Company, whose sales plans have not been finalized. Even when these are added, the total planned sales volume for next year is about 157,000 units, still the lowest level since 2000.

According to the weekly KB Apartment Market Trends report by KB Real Estate, Seoul apartment sale prices surged by 0.22% in just one week. The photo shows the Granjae Apartment in Mapo-gu, Seoul, on the 5th. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

A representative from Real Estate R114 stated, "The 25 construction companies surveyed account for more than 80% of all private apartment sales. Sales volume translates into move-in volume 2 to 3 years later, so a sharp decline in sales will reduce move-in volume and could shock the housing supply market."

Looking at the sales planned for next year by region, the metropolitan area accounts for 85,840 units (59%), and other regions account for 60,290 units (41%).

Breaking down metropolitan area sales, Gyeonggi Province has 50,550 units, Seoul 21,719 units, and Incheon 13,571 units. Gyeonggi Province (which sold 78,625 units this year) will see a decrease of 28,075 units. Seoul (26,484 units this year) will decrease by 4,765 units, and Incheon (21,699 units this year) will see a reduction of 8,128 units.

In other regions next year, Busan (18,007 units), Chungnam (13,496 units), and Gyeongnam (6,611 units) have the highest sales volumes. However, some areas such as Gangwon (508 units), Gyeongbuk (999 units), Gwangju (1,294 units), and Jeonnam (1,434 units) have planned sales volumes that do not even reach the size of a single complex in Seoul.

By month, January next year (16,066 units) has the highest volume, influenced by units whose sales plans were scheduled this year but postponed to early next year. The peak sales months of April and May are expected to supply 11,163 units and 11,261 units, respectively.

By company, among the top 10 construction companies based on construction capability evaluation (as of this year), six are expected to see a decrease in sales volume compared to this year. Three companies are expected to maintain this year's level, and only one is expected to increase.

Accordingly, the total sales volume of the top 10 construction companies is projected to decrease to 69% of this year's level. By project type, the proportion of redevelopment and remodeling projects in next year's maintenance projects is expected to fall below 50%, to 47%.