JCS Releases Recent Analysis of North Korean Military Movements
From Multiple Rocket Launchers to Suicide Drones Supported by Russia
Electric Fences Installed, Performance Tested Using Goats
Military authorities have identified signs that North Korea intends to send additional troops and equipment to support Russia, which invaded Ukraine. To strengthen vigilance and separation against the South, an 'electric fence' was installed in certain sections, and during performance verification, movements that electrocuted animals were also detected.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed through multiple intelligence reports that approximately 1,100 casualties have occurred among North Korean troops deployed to Russia, and that North Korea is currently preparing for troop rotation or reinforcement deployment, the office announced on the 23rd. North Korea is supporting the Russian battlefield with weapons such as 240mm multiple rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled artillery, and some signs have been detected that it intends to provide suicide drones, which were revealed during a recent on-site inspection by State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un last month.
North Korean soldiers lighting a bonfire and working to maintain body heat near the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). Provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The Joint Chiefs assessed that North Korea is using the 'war special' to consume outdated forces while accumulating combat experience for new forces, aiming to modernize its conventionally inferior conventional forces compared to South Korea. This, according to military authorities, could lead to an increased military threat against the South.
Although North Korea has continued strong criticism of President Yoon Suk-yeol, it has only reported fact-based coverage a few times regarding the emergency martial law situation and impeachment crisis. It is evaluated that the regime is strengthening security measures against the Kim Jong-un regime, as detailed reporting on these matters could cause adverse effects.
Although winter training has been underway this month, no unusual provocations have been identified. The Joint Chiefs expect North Korea to focus on managing internal affairs until the end of the year, including convening the Party Plenary Meeting.
Additionally, North Korea has recently strengthened surveillance around the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and continues preparations to launch trash balloons. Thousands of troops have been reinforced solely for surveillance operations, and electric fences are being installed atop barriers along the MDL area. The fences have been installed over approximately 40 kilometers, presumably to block defections by soldiers or residents. Notably, in some sections, electric fences have been installed, and animals presumed to be goats were brought close to test the fence's performance, scenes captured by military surveillance equipment.
North Korean soldiers testing the performance by placing animals presumed to be goats near electric fences installed in some sections around the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). Provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Although no physical provocation signs have been identified, it is assessed that there is a possibility of launching an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM)-class hypersonic missile around the end of the year. Considering signs of production and movement of solid-fuel ballistic missile bodies, North Korea's five-year defense development plan, and domestic and international political schedules such as the potential re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump, military authorities evaluate that a surprise missile launch could occur around the Party Plenary Meeting.
North Korea is expected to continue its hostile two-state theory policy next year, maintaining a strategy of ignoring the South. Instead, it is likely to persist in gray zone tactics such as noise broadcasts and GPS jamming. Since it must concentrate its capabilities on supporting Russia, provoking full-scale conflict is also a significant burden for North Korea. The bizarre noise broadcasts have been ongoing for more than 10 hours daily at about 40 frontline locations since July.
A Joint Chiefs official said, "Along with training that has the character of a show of force against the South linked to winter training, there is a possibility of various strategic provocations such as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches and nuclear tests to enhance negotiation leverage with the U.S., backed by Russia," adding, "It is crucial to establish intelligence cooperation and readiness between South Korea and the U.S."
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